BTC Volatility Analysis for International Exports, 5th May 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis on 5 May 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. The International Exports in Goods and Services fell to $190.1B for March 2020, from $209.5B in February 2020.

It arrived at the same moment as International Trade Balance in Goods and Services and International Imports in Goods and Services, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.62x, against 1.10x for a typical International Exports release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.78x, against a typical 1.22x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $8,879.84 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.53% of its price, against 0.89% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, International Exports releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 0.97x across 23, against 1.25x across 47. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.62x compares with 1.25x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About International Exports in Goods and Services

International Exports measures economic transactions between a nation and its trading partners, showing the amount of a country's exports for a given period. The BEA and Census Bureau reports on the U.S. balance of payments (BOP), covering goods and services that move out of the country. Economists use this information to gauge the relative strength of a country's economy.