How Avalanche reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 10 November 2021

The short answer

A strong reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Avalanche's price swung 2.60 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.42 times is usual. An hour later the price was 2.14% higher.

2.60x

Strong

Trading (volume ratio)
2.56x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.66x
Price at 8:30 AM
$87.89
15 minutes later
+1.95%
One hour later
+2.14%
range 3.52%, hour before 3.08%
AVAX/USDT, 5 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
92.85
Close
84.75
24h change
-9.56%
24h high
94.00
24h low
78.31
24h volume
4.195M AVAX

Measured by Clometrix

Avalanche's volatility ratio was 2.60x, against 1.42x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.56x, against a typical 1.66x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Avalanche moved

Avalanche was at $87.89 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.95% higher, and an hour later 2.14% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.52% of its price, against 3.08% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 10 November 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 251K for the week ending 6th Nov, from 262K in the week ending 30th Oct.

It arrived at the same moment as Consumer Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Avalanche about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.51x across 92, against 1.41x across 204. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.60x compares with 1.41x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Avalanche's median volatility ratio is 1.42x.

How it compares

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Avalanche's usual price swing is 1.42x. This one was 1.83 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.42x. Thick line: this release, 2.60x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 87.92 87.38 87.73 -0.18% 0.61% 0.48% 18,271 AVAX
5 minutes 88.75 87.38 88.62 0.82% 1.54% 0.88% 42,625 AVAX
10 minutes 89.59 87.38 89.50 1.80% 2.47% 1.56% 67,090 AVAX
15 minutes 89.89 87.38 89.60 1.91% 2.79% 2.25% 82,499 AVAX
30 minutes 89.89 87.38 89.53 1.83% 2.79% 2.39% 114,709 AVAX
1 hour 90.47 87.38 89.77 2.09% 3.42% 2.99% 215,209 AVAX
2 hours 91.80 87.38 90.22 2.58% 4.81% 5.01% 420,164 AVAX
4 hours 91.80 87.38 90.91 3.32% 4.81% 5.94% 676,041 AVAX
6 hours 91.80 87.38 89.40 1.69% 4.81% 5.94% 843,213 AVAX
8 hours 93.39 87.38 90.91 -1.45% 6.44% 3.66% 1.226M AVAX
12 hours 91.80 78.31 84.75 -3.71% 14.69% 6.55% 2.433M AVAX

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 6.21x 1.52x Exceptional
Ethereum 4.21x 1.47x Exceptional
XRP 1.88x 1.18x Strong
BNB 1.90x 1.42x Strong
Solana 2.46x 1.39x Strong
Dogecoin 3.70x 1.39x Exceptional
TRON 2.29x 1.33x Strong
Cardano 2.02x 1.35x Strong
Chainlink 2.90x 1.43x Exceptional
Bitcoin Cash 2.76x 1.34x Exceptional
Hedera 1.60x 1.32x Ordinary
Avalanche 2.60x 1.42x Strong
Litecoin 1.65x 1.38x Ordinary
Shiba Inu 3.49x 1.34x Exceptional
Uniswap 2.34x 1.35x Strong
Polkadot 2.33x 1.31x Strong
Aave 2.66x 1.38x Strong
NEAR Protocol 1.82x 1.24x Strong
Internet Computer 3.77x 1.46x Exceptional
POL (prev. MATIC) 2.08x 1.42x Strong
Filecoin 2.12x 1.27x Strong

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Avalanche

Questions about this page

Is 2.60x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is strong: the usual is 1.42x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Avalanche moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

More questions ยท Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.