How TRON reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 29 September 2022

The short answer

An exceptional reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, TRON's price swung 2.74 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.33 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.10% lower.

2.74x

Exceptional

Trading (volume ratio)
2.94x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.53x
Price at 8:30 AM
$0.0600
15 minutes later
−0.37%
One hour later
−0.10%
range 0.68%, hour before 0.50%
TRX/USDT, 15 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
0.0597
Close
0.0610
24h change
2.15%
24h high
0.0620
24h low
0.0593
24h volume
606.858M TRX

Measured by Clometrix

TRON's volatility ratio was 2.74x, against 1.33x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.94x, against a typical 1.53x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How TRON moved

TRON was at $0.0600 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.37% lower, and an hour later 0.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.68% of its price, against 0.5% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 29 September 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K for the week ending 24th Sep, from 201K in the week ending 17th Sep.

It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved TRON about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.36x across 92, against 1.33x across 204. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.74x compares with 1.33x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, TRON's median volatility ratio is 1.33x.

How it compares

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, TRON's usual price swing is 1.33x. This one was 2.05 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.33x. Thick line: this release, 2.74x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 0.06003 0.05991 0.05994 -0.15% 0.20% 0.10% 894,559 TRX
5 minutes 0.06009 0.05981 0.05981 -0.37% 0.47% 0.20% 3.689M TRX
10 minutes 0.06009 0.05971 0.05985 -0.30% 0.63% 0.20% 11.057M TRX
15 minutes 0.06009 0.05971 0.05981 -0.37% 0.63% 0.20% 12.626M TRX
30 minutes 0.06009 0.05971 0.05984 -0.32% 0.63% 0.43% 16.836M TRX
1 hour 0.06012 0.05971 0.05997 -0.10% 0.68% 0.50% 23.777M TRX
2 hours 0.06012 0.05933 0.05945 -0.98% 1.31% 0.50% 56.569M TRX
4 hours 0.06013 0.05933 0.05998 -0.08% 1.33% 0.55% 106.237M TRX
6 hours 0.06033 0.05933 0.05994 -0.15% 1.66% 0.81% 143.125M TRX
8 hours 0.06027 0.05933 0.05998 -0.15% 1.56% 1.54% 175.774M TRX
12 hours 0.062 0.05933 0.06101 1.61% 4.31% 1.54% 386.482M TRX

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 3.40x 1.52x Exceptional
Ethereum 3.91x 1.47x Exceptional
XRP 2.37x 1.18x Exceptional
BNB 3.14x 1.42x Exceptional
Solana 2.27x 1.39x Strong
Dogecoin 2.81x 1.39x Exceptional
TRON 2.74x 1.33x Exceptional
Cardano 2.86x 1.35x Exceptional
Chainlink 3.68x 1.43x Exceptional
Bitcoin Cash 2.80x 1.34x Exceptional
Hedera 2.02x 1.32x Strong
Avalanche 3.44x 1.42x Exceptional
Litecoin 2.79x 1.38x Exceptional
Shiba Inu 5.03x 1.34x Exceptional
Uniswap 2.05x 1.35x Strong
Polkadot 3.33x 1.31x Exceptional
Aave 2.78x 1.38x Exceptional
NEAR Protocol 3.03x 1.24x Exceptional
Internet Computer 2.35x 1.46x Strong
POL (prev. MATIC) 2.86x 1.42x Exceptional
Filecoin 3.02x 1.27x Exceptional

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for TRON

Questions about this page

Is 2.74x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.33x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range TRON moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?

Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.