How Uniswap reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 9 July 2026

The short answer

An ordinary reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Uniswap's price swung 1.50 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.34 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.30% higher.

1.50x

Ordinary

Trading (volume ratio)
2.48x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.51x
Price at 8:30 AM
$3.310
15 minutes later
+0.30%
One hour later
+0.30%
range 0.91%, hour before 2.11%
UNI/USDT, 5 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
3.270
Close
3.380
24h change
3.25%
24h high
3.440
24h low
3.250
24h volume
5.392M UNI

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 9 July 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims was unchanged at 215K for the week ending 4th Jul.

It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Uniswap moved

Uniswap was at $3.310 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.3% higher, and an hour later 0.3% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.91% of its price, against 2.11% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Uniswap's volatility ratio was 1.50x, against 1.34x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.48x, against a typical 1.51x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Uniswap about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.40x across 94, against 1.33x across 209. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.50x compares with 1.33x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Uniswap's median volatility ratio is 1.34x.

How it compares

Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Uniswap's usual price swing is 1.34x. This one was 1.12 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.34x. Thick line: this release, 1.50x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 3.31 3.31 3.31 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 1,341 UNI
5 minutes 3.33 3.31 3.33 0.60% 0.60% 0.30% 36,656 UNI
10 minutes 3.34 3.31 3.33 0.60% 0.90% 0.30% 73,708 UNI
15 minutes 3.34 3.31 3.32 0.30% 0.90% 0.60% 93,355 UNI
30 minutes 3.34 3.31 3.32 0.30% 0.90% 1.79% 141,616 UNI
1 hour 3.34 3.31 3.32 0.30% 0.90% 2.08% 205,453 UNI
2 hours 3.36 3.30 3.33 0.60% 1.79% 2.08% 551,126 UNI
4 hours 3.36 3.30 3.33 0.60% 1.79% 3.23% 845,765 UNI
6 hours 3.43 3.30 3.42 3.22% 3.79% 3.79% 1.196M UNI
8 hours 3.41 3.30 3.33 -0.90% 3.23% 5.25% 1.931M UNI
12 hours 3.44 3.30 3.38 2.07% 4.07% 5.25% 1.925M UNI

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 2.21x 1.50x Strong
Ethereum 1.91x 1.46x Strong
XRP Not measured 1.18x -
BNB 1.58x 1.42x Ordinary
Solana 2.04x 1.38x Strong
Dogecoin 1.69x 1.38x Ordinary
TRON 0.99x 1.33x Quiet
Cardano 1.26x 1.35x Quiet
Chainlink 1.97x 1.43x Strong
Sui 1.35x 1.24x Quiet
Bitcoin Cash 1.77x 1.34x Strong
Hedera 1.20x 1.32x Quiet
Avalanche 1.00x 1.42x Quiet
Litecoin 1.00x 1.39x Quiet
Gram 0.99x 1.02x Quiet
Shiba Inu 1.50x 1.33x Ordinary
Uniswap 1.50x 1.34x Ordinary
Polkadot 1.00x 1.32x Quiet
Aave 1.13x 1.38x Quiet
Bittensor 1.42x 1.40x Quiet
NEAR Protocol 5.05x 1.24x Exceptional
Aptos 1.33x 1.41x Quiet
Internet Computer 1.97x 1.45x Strong
POL (prev. MATIC) 0.76x 1.40x Quiet
Filecoin 1.33x 1.27x Quiet

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Uniswap

Questions about this page

Is 1.50x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.34x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Uniswap moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

More questions ยท Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.