How NEAR Protocol reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 28 December 2023

The short answer

A strong reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, NEAR Protocol's price swung 2.16 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.24 times is usual. An hour later the price was 3.03% lower.

2.16x

Strong

Trading (volume ratio)
1.73x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.63x
Price at 8:30 AM
$3.960
15 minutes later
−1.52%
One hour later
−3.03%
range 4.29%, hour before 3.03%
NEAR/USDT, 10 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
4.040
Close
3.670
24h change
-10.08%
24h high
4.320
24h low
3.620
24h volume
28.651M NEAR

Measured by Clometrix

NEAR Protocol's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 1.24x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.73x, against a typical 1.63x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How NEAR Protocol moved

NEAR Protocol was at $3.960 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.52% lower, and an hour later 3.03% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.29% of its price, against 3.03% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 28 December 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 210K for the week ending 23rd Dec, from 209K in the week ending 16th Dec.

It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved NEAR Protocol less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.07x across 89, against 1.31x across 193. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 282 Initial Claims releases since 2021, NEAR Protocol's median volatility ratio is 1.24x.

How it compares

Across 282 Initial Claims releases since 2021, NEAR Protocol's usual price swing is 1.24x. This one was 1.74 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.24x. Thick line: this release, 2.16x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 3.97 3.95 3.96 0.00% 0.50% 0.50% 8,639 NEAR
5 minutes 3.97 3.95 3.95 -0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 75,954 NEAR
10 minutes 3.97 3.91 3.91 -1.28% 1.51% 0.75% 164,267 NEAR
15 minutes 3.97 3.88 3.90 -1.54% 2.27% 0.75% 413,933 NEAR
30 minutes 3.97 3.88 3.91 -1.28% 2.27% 2.00% 617,640 NEAR
1 hour 3.97 3.80 3.84 -3.13% 4.28% 2.97% 1.653M NEAR
2 hours 3.97 3.80 3.87 -2.33% 4.28% 4.62% 2.963M NEAR
4 hours 3.97 3.80 3.86 -2.59% 4.28% 5.77% 4.252M NEAR
6 hours 3.97 3.76 3.80 -4.21% 5.29% 9.26% 5.757M NEAR
8 hours 4.16 3.80 3.86 -6.99% 8.65% 9.72% 7.96M NEAR
12 hours 3.97 3.62 3.67 -7.90% 8.82% 9.72% 10.698M NEAR

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 1.47x 1.52x Quiet
Ethereum 1.78x 1.47x Ordinary
XRP 1.10x 1.18x Quiet
BNB 1.41x 1.42x Quiet
Solana 2.60x 1.39x Strong
Dogecoin 2.28x 1.39x Strong
TRON 1.45x 1.33x Quiet
Cardano 1.35x 1.35x Quiet
Chainlink 1.08x 1.43x Quiet
Sui 1.88x 1.24x Strong
Bitcoin Cash 1.83x 1.34x Strong
Hedera 1.46x 1.32x Quiet
Avalanche 2.41x 1.42x Strong
Litecoin 1.63x 1.38x Ordinary
Shiba Inu 1.98x 1.34x Strong
Uniswap 1.54x 1.35x Ordinary
Polkadot 1.90x 1.31x Strong
Aave 1.05x 1.38x Quiet
NEAR Protocol 2.16x 1.24x Strong
Aptos 2.20x 1.41x Strong
Internet Computer 2.82x 1.46x Strong
POL (prev. MATIC) 1.96x 1.42x Strong
Filecoin 1.51x 1.27x Ordinary

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for NEAR Protocol

Questions about this page

Is 2.16x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is strong: the usual is 1.24x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range NEAR Protocol moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?

Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.