The release
Released by the Department of Labor on 1 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 658K for the week ending 27th Mar, from 627K in the week ending 20th Mar.
It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.06x, against 1.50x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.14x, against a typical 1.67x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $58,691.22 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.36% lower, and an hour later 0.41% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.13% of its price, against 0.73% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.65x across 94, against 1.43x across 209. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.06x compares with 1.43x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
How it compares
Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 1.50x. This one was 0.70 times the usual.
Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.50x. Thick line: this release, 1.06x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 58691.23 | 58646.64 | 58659.57 | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 24 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 58691.23 | 58570.01 | 58661.37 | -0.05% | 0.21% | 0.14% | 121 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 58691.23 | 58567.46 | 58582.78 | -0.19% | 0.21% | 0.19% | 297 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 58691.23 | 58454.54 | 58478.28 | -0.36% | 0.40% | 0.26% | 497 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 58740.86 | 58439.60 | 58730.06 | 0.07% | 0.51% | 0.60% | 933 BTC |
| 1 hour | 59100.99 | 58439.60 | 58928.94 | 0.40% | 1.12% | 0.73% | 2,266 BTC |
| 2 hours | 59111.74 | 58439.60 | 58990.10 | 0.51% | 1.14% | 1.25% | 4,247 BTC |
| 4 hours | 59263.30 | 58439.60 | 58827.00 | 0.23% | 1.39% | 2.08% | 8,580 BTC |
| 6 hours | 59263.30 | 57935.45 | 58644.83 | -0.08% | 2.24% | 2.31% | 13,870 BTC |
| 8 hours | 59349.54 | 58115.00 | 58827.00 | -0.86% | 2.08% | 1.66% | 19,785 BTC |
| 12 hours | 59263.30 | 57935.45 | 58655.52 | -0.06% | 2.24% | 2.31% | 22,790 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Initial Claims | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.06x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.89x | 1.46x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.58x | 1.18x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.79x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.04x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 3.53x | 1.38x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.18x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | Not measured | 1.35x | - |
| Chainlink | 0.82x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.07x | 1.34x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.71x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.91x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.88x | 1.39x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.75x | 1.34x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.46x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.57x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.60x | 1.24x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.55x | 1.40x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.31x | 1.27x | Quiet |
What is Initial Jobless Claims?
The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.Questions about this page
Is 1.06x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Initial Claims do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.