The release
Released by the Department of Labor on 2 February 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 200K for the week ending 28th Jan, from 203K in the week ending 21st Jan.
It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.29x, against 1.52x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.54x, against a typical 1.68x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $23,798.13 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.11% lower, and an hour later 0.43% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.97% of its price, against 0.26% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.68x across 92, against 1.43x across 204. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 1 February rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.29x compares with 1.43x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
How it compares
Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 1.52x. This one was 0.85 times the usual.
Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.52x. Thick line: this release, 1.29x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 23816.92 | 23792.77 | 23800.03 | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 443 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 23816.92 | 23750.00 | 23766.37 | -0.13% | 0.28% | 0.09% | 1,788 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 23816.92 | 23750.00 | 23759.46 | -0.16% | 0.28% | 0.16% | 2,825 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 23816.92 | 23737.08 | 23772.02 | -0.11% | 0.34% | 0.22% | 4,059 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 23816.92 | 23715.41 | 23766.53 | -0.13% | 0.43% | 0.25% | 7,452 BTC |
| 1 hour | 23945.68 | 23715.41 | 23900.84 | 0.43% | 0.96% | 0.26% | 17,092 BTC |
| 2 hours | 23945.68 | 23525.00 | 23676.91 | -0.51% | 1.76% | 0.41% | 53,495 BTC |
| 4 hours | 23945.68 | 23525.00 | 23826.96 | 0.12% | 1.76% | 0.41% | 94,787 BTC |
| 6 hours | 24144.62 | 23525.00 | 23832.71 | 0.15% | 2.57% | 0.48% | 140,421 BTC |
| 8 hours | 23945.68 | 23525.00 | 23826.96 | 0.25% | 1.76% | 1.67% | 130,651 BTC |
| 12 hours | 24144.62 | 23363.27 | 23575.24 | -0.95% | 3.24% | 1.67% | 232,387 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Initial Claims | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.29x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.22x | 1.47x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.14x | 1.18x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.42x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.27x | 1.39x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.66x | 1.39x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 1.05x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.19x | 1.35x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.66x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.19x | 1.34x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.49x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.40x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.14x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.93x | 1.34x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.80x | 1.35x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 1.65x | 1.31x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 1.32x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.49x | 1.24x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.15x | 1.41x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.66x | 1.46x | Ordinary |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.00x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 1.25x | 1.27x | Quiet |
What is Initial Jobless Claims?
The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.Questions about this page
Is 1.29x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Initial Claims do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?
Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.