How Filecoin reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 12 December 2024

The short answer

An exceptional reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Filecoin's price swung 2.97 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.27 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.43% lower.

2.97x

Exceptional

Trading (volume ratio)
5.38x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.43x
Price at 8:30 AM
$6.930
15 minutes later
−0.72%
One hour later
−0.43%
range 2.60%, hour before 2.45%
FIL/USDT, 30 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
6.740
Close
6.590
24h change
-2.28%
24h high
7.150
24h low
6.570
24h volume
13.695M FIL

Measured by Clometrix

Filecoin's volatility ratio was 2.97x, against 1.27x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.38x, against a typical 1.43x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Filecoin moved

Filecoin was at $6.930 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.72% lower, and an hour later 0.43% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.6% of its price, against 2.45% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 12 December 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 239K for the week ending 7th Dec, from 225K in the week ending 30th Nov.

It arrived at the same moment as Producer Price Index, Core Producer Price Index and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Filecoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.34x across 94, against 1.27x across 209. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 18 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.97x compares with 1.34x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Filecoin's median volatility ratio is 1.27x.

How it compares

Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Filecoin's usual price swing is 1.27x. This one was 2.33 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.27x. Thick line: this release, 2.97x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 6.96 6.93 6.95 0.29% 0.43% 0.14% 23,515 FIL
5 minutes 6.96 6.81 6.89 -0.58% 2.16% 0.58% 294,905 FIL
10 minutes 6.96 6.78 6.86 -1.02% 2.59% 1.00% 531,109 FIL
15 minutes 6.96 6.78 6.88 -0.73% 2.59% 1.43% 587,531 FIL
30 minutes 6.96 6.78 6.84 -1.32% 2.59% 1.58% 764,848 FIL
1 hour 6.96 6.78 6.90 -0.43% 2.59% 2.44% 1.023M FIL
2 hours 6.96 6.78 6.88 -0.73% 2.59% 3.44% 1.916M FIL
4 hours 6.97 6.78 6.93 0.00% 2.73% 3.85% 2.93M FIL
6 hours 6.97 6.78 6.80 -1.91% 2.73% 4.26% 3.413M FIL
8 hours 7.01 6.74 6.93 -1.15% 3.85% 6.99% 5.156M FIL
12 hours 6.97 6.57 6.59 -5.16% 5.74% 6.99% 6.201M FIL

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 3.19x 1.50x Exceptional
Ethereum 3.11x 1.46x Exceptional
XRP 2.49x 1.18x Exceptional
BNB 3.93x 1.42x Exceptional
Solana 2.63x 1.38x Strong
Dogecoin 3.55x 1.38x Exceptional
TRON 1.71x 1.33x Ordinary
Cardano 2.97x 1.35x Exceptional
Chainlink 1.79x 1.43x Ordinary
Sui 1.63x 1.24x Strong
Bitcoin Cash 3.58x 1.34x Exceptional
Hedera 2.89x 1.32x Exceptional
Avalanche 3.70x 1.42x Exceptional
Litecoin 2.64x 1.39x Strong
Gram 3.33x 1.02x Exceptional
Shiba Inu 3.92x 1.33x Exceptional
Uniswap 1.75x 1.34x Strong
Polkadot 3.21x 1.32x Exceptional
Aave 2.03x 1.38x Strong
Bittensor 5.07x 1.40x Exceptional
NEAR Protocol 2.58x 1.24x Exceptional
Aptos 2.70x 1.41x Strong
Internet Computer 2.35x 1.45x Strong
POL (prev. MATIC) 3.31x 1.40x Exceptional
Filecoin 2.97x 1.27x Exceptional

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Filecoin

Questions about this page

Is 2.97x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.27x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Filecoin moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.