How Chainlink reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 15 October 2020

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 15 October 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 839K for the week ending 10th Oct, from 785K in the week ending 3rd Oct.

It arrived at the same moment as Import Price Index, Export Price Index and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 1.44x, against 1.43x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.31x, against a typical 1.62x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $10.69 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.56% lower, and an hour later 0.37% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.12% of its price, against 2.25% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.45x across 92, against 1.38x across 204. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.44x compares with 1.38x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Chainlink's usual price swing is 1.43x. This one was 1.01 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.43x. Thick line: this release, 1.44x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	10.70	10.67	10.67	-0.19%	0.28%	0.28%	5,377 LINK
5 minutes	10.70	10.64	10.66	-0.28%	0.56%	0.56%	24,319 LINK
10 minutes	10.71	10.64	10.71	0.19%	0.65%	1.58%	49,498 LINK
15 minutes	10.73	10.63	10.63	-0.56%	0.93%	2.24%	194,992 LINK
30 minutes	10.73	10.63	10.67	-0.19%	0.93%	2.24%	307,344 LINK
1 hour	10.73	10.61	10.65	-0.38%	1.12%	2.24%	534,872 LINK
2 hours	10.75	10.61	10.66	-0.28%	1.30%	2.24%	1.156M LINK
4 hours	10.78	10.58	10.73	0.37%	1.86%	2.61%	1.725M LINK
6 hours	10.86	10.58	10.78	0.83%	2.58%	4.12%	2.491M LINK
8 hours	10.78	10.46	10.73	0.37%	2.97%	2.75%	3.325M LINK
12 hours	10.93	10.58	10.69	0.00%	3.20%	4.12%	3.601M LINK

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for Initial Claims	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.61x	1.52x	Ordinary
Ethereum	2.63x	1.47x	Strong
XRP	1.42x	1.18x	Quiet
BNB	1.41x	1.42x	Quiet
Solana	1.97x	1.39x	Strong
Dogecoin	1.46x	1.39x	Quiet
TRON	1.11x	1.33x	Quiet
Cardano	1.30x	1.35x	Quiet
Chainlink	1.44x	1.43x	Quiet
Bitcoin Cash	1.45x	1.34x	Quiet
Hedera	2.79x	1.32x	Exceptional
Avalanche	2.96x	1.42x	Exceptional
Litecoin	1.35x	1.38x	Quiet
Uniswap	1.70x	1.35x	Ordinary
Polkadot	3.00x	1.31x	Exceptional
NEAR Protocol	1.51x	1.24x	Ordinary
POL (prev. MATIC)	1.65x	1.42x	Ordinary

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Chainlink

Questions about this page

Is 1.44x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Chainlink moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?

Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.