Measured by Clometrix
Aave's volatility ratio was 2.65x, against 1.38x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.26x, against a typical 1.63x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Aave moved
Aave was at $88.25 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.01% lower, and an hour later 0.76% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.63% of its price, against 1.64% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Department of Labor on 2 July 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims was unchanged at 215K for the week ending 27th Jun.
It arrived at the same moment as Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Aave about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.43x across 94, against 1.33x across 209. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.65x compares with 1.33x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Aave's median volatility ratio is 1.38x.
How it compares
Across 303 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Aave's usual price swing is 1.38x. This one was 1.92 times the usual.
Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.38x. Thick line: this release, 2.65x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 88.54 | 88.10 | 88.16 | -0.10% | 0.50% | 0.33% | 788 AAVE |
| 5 minutes | 88.54 | 87.53 | 87.75 | -0.57% | 1.14% | 0.57% | 1,961 AAVE |
| 10 minutes | 88.54 | 87.53 | 87.64 | -0.70% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 2,445 AAVE |
| 15 minutes | 88.54 | 87.34 | 87.36 | -1.02% | 1.36% | 1.08% | 3,283 AAVE |
| 30 minutes | 88.54 | 87.10 | 87.54 | -0.81% | 1.63% | 1.19% | 5,518 AAVE |
| 1 hour | 88.54 | 87.10 | 87.58 | -0.77% | 1.63% | 1.64% | 12,253 AAVE |
| 2 hours | 88.54 | 86.51 | 86.84 | -1.62% | 2.29% | 2.73% | 27,162 AAVE |
| 4 hours | 88.54 | 85.83 | 86.90 | -1.55% | 3.06% | 4.04% | 45,692 AAVE |
| 6 hours | 88.54 | 85.83 | 87.54 | -0.81% | 3.06% | 4.55% | 56,756 AAVE |
| 8 hours | 88.54 | 84.80 | 86.90 | 2.38% | 4.22% | 3.39% | 80,899 AAVE |
| 12 hours | 88.54 | 85.66 | 85.90 | -2.74% | 3.25% | 6.02% | 86,906 AAVE |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Initial Claims | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.19x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.10x | 1.46x | Exceptional |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.18x | - |
| BNB | 2.14x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.44x | 1.38x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 2.16x | 1.38x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.33x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.45x | 1.35x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.68x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.94x | 1.24x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.88x | 1.34x | Strong |
| Hedera | 1.31x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.97x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.22x | 1.39x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 1.99x | 1.33x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.81x | 1.34x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 1.99x | 1.32x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.65x | 1.38x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.24x | 1.40x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.97x | 1.24x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 2.31x | 1.41x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 0.98x | 1.45x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.48x | 1.40x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.45x | 1.27x | Quiet |
What is Initial Jobless Claims?
The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.Questions about this page
Is 2.65x a lot?
For an Initial Claims release it is strong: the usual is 1.38x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Initial Claims do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Aave moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.