How Uniswap reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 8 October 2020

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 8 October 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 785K for the week ending 3rd Oct, from 795K in the week ending 26th Sep.

It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Uniswap moved

Uniswap was at $2.880 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.74% higher, and an hour later 6.25% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 8.33% of its price, against 4.17% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Uniswap's volatility ratio was 1.58x, against 1.35x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.70x, against a typical 1.51x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Uniswap about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.46x across 92, against 1.33x across 204. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.58x compares with 1.33x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Uniswap's median volatility ratio is 1.35x.

How it compares

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Uniswap's usual price swing is 1.35x. This one was 1.18 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.35x. Thick line: this release, 1.58x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	2.89	2.87	2.87	-0.35%	0.69%	0.69%	31,535 UNI
5 minutes	2.91	2.87	2.90	0.69%	1.37%	1.38%	159,790 UNI
10 minutes	2.91	2.87	2.88	0.00%	1.37%	2.08%	279,259 UNI
15 minutes	2.95	2.87	2.93	1.71%	2.71%	2.42%	499,199 UNI
30 minutes	2.95	2.87	2.94	2.04%	2.71%	3.46%	714,800 UNI
1 hour	3.11	2.87	3.06	5.88%	7.72%	4.15%	2.361M UNI
2 hours	3.11	2.87	3.02	4.64%	7.72%	4.15%	3.386M UNI
4 hours	3.38	2.87	3.27	11.93%	15.09%	7.96%	10.619M UNI
6 hours	3.38	2.87	3.20	10.00%	15.09%	8.65%	13.073M UNI
8 hours	3.38	2.66	3.27	16.51%	21.30%	10.20%	13.675M UNI
12 hours	3.47	2.87	3.27	11.93%	17.29%	10.20%	17.606M UNI

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for Initial Claims	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.12x	1.52x	Quiet
Ethereum	1.21x	1.47x	Quiet
XRP	0.91x	1.18x	Quiet
BNB	1.30x	1.42x	Quiet
Solana	1.41x	1.39x	Quiet
Dogecoin	1.86x	1.39x	Strong
TRON	1.32x	1.33x	Quiet
Cardano	0.95x	1.35x	Quiet
Chainlink	1.00x	1.43x	Quiet
Bitcoin Cash	2.98x	1.34x	Exceptional
Hedera	0.50x	1.32x	Quiet
Avalanche	1.27x	1.42x	Quiet
Litecoin	0.83x	1.38x	Quiet
Uniswap	1.58x	1.35x	Ordinary
Polkadot	1.33x	1.31x	Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC)	0.70x	1.42x	Quiet

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Uniswap

Questions about this page

Is 1.58x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.35x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Uniswap moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?

Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.