How Solana reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 27 August 2020

The short answer

A strong reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Solana's price swung 2.73 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.39 times is usual. An hour later the price was 7.87% higher.

2.73x

Strong

Trading (volume ratio)
2.27x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.56x
Price at 8:30 AM
$3.43
15 minutes later
−2.04%
One hour later
+7.87%
range 13.41%, hour before 8.16%
SOL/USDT, 5 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
3.63
Close
3.56
24h change
-1.97%
24h high
3.86
24h low
3.24
24h volume
2.428M SOL

Measured by Clometrix

Solana's volatility ratio was 2.73x, against 1.39x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.27x, against a typical 1.56x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Solana moved

Solana was at $3.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.04% lower, and an hour later 7.87% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 13.41% of its price, against 8.16% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 27 August 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 876K for the week ending 22nd Aug, from 927K in the week ending 15th Aug.

It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Solana more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.48x across 92, against 1.29x across 204. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.73x compares with 1.29x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Solana's median volatility ratio is 1.39x.

How it compares

Across 296 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Solana's usual price swing is 1.39x. This one was 1.96 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.39x. Thick line: this release, 2.73x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 3.44 3.42 3.44 0.29% 0.58% 0.29% 411 SOL
5 minutes 3.46 3.42 3.43 0.00% 1.16% 1.44% 13,559 SOL
10 minutes 3.46 3.39 3.39 -1.18% 2.02% 1.72% 28,481 SOL
15 minutes 3.46 3.35 3.36 -2.08% 3.18% 2.29% 35,858 SOL
30 minutes 3.46 3.32 3.42 -0.29% 4.05% 2.86% 76,393 SOL
1 hour 3.78 3.32 3.70 7.30% 12.17% 7.82% 203,922 SOL
2 hours 3.80 3.32 3.48 1.44% 12.63% 10.57% 507,516 SOL
4 hours 3.80 3.32 3.43 0.00% 12.63% 14.51% 703,774 SOL
6 hours 3.80 3.24 3.34 -2.69% 14.74% 14.51% 879,617 SOL
8 hours 3.86 3.30 3.43 -11.08% 14.51% 11.26% 1.338M SOL
12 hours 3.80 3.24 3.56 3.65% 14.74% 14.51% 1.039M SOL

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 1.16x 1.52x Quiet
Ethereum 0.95x 1.47x Quiet
XRP 3.15x 1.18x Exceptional
BNB 1.07x 1.42x Quiet
Solana 2.73x 1.39x Strong
Dogecoin 2.05x 1.39x Strong
TRON 1.25x 1.33x Quiet
Cardano 1.07x 1.35x Quiet
Chainlink 2.00x 1.43x Strong
Bitcoin Cash 1.29x 1.34x Quiet
Hedera 1.84x 1.32x Strong
Litecoin 1.07x 1.38x Quiet
Polkadot 1.30x 1.31x Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC) 0.90x 1.42x Quiet

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for Solana

Questions about this page

Is 2.73x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is strong: the usual is 1.39x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Solana moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Do weekly jobless claims move crypto?

Weekly jobless claims have a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.52x since 2021, which places Initial Claims and Continued Claims in Tier 3. They are released at 8:30 a.m. ET. When a claims release falls on the same minute as a bigger report, such as CPI, the reaction belongs to both. Clometrix measures 296 claims releases in the record since 2021.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.