How XRP reacted to Initial Jobless Claims on 18 March 2021

The short answer

An exceptional reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, XRP's price swung 2.75 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For an Initial Claims release, 1.18 times is usual. An hour later the price was 1.70% lower.

2.75x

Exceptional

Trading (volume ratio)
3.14x
usual for Initial Claims: 1.54x
Price at 8:30 AM
$0.4848
15 minutes later
−1.07%
One hour later
−1.70%
range 1.93%, hour before 4.36%
XRP/USDT, 1 minute candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
0.4683
Close
0.4623
24h change
-1.31%
24h high
0.4905
24h low
0.4585
24h volume
563.636M XRP

Measured by Clometrix

XRP's volatility ratio was 2.75x, against 1.18x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.14x, against a typical 1.54x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How XRP moved

XRP was at $0.4848 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.07% lower, and an hour later 1.7% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.93% of its price, against 4.36% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 18 March 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 699K for the week ending 13th Mar, from 693K in the week ending 6th Mar.

It arrived at the same moment as Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved XRP about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.14x across 89, against 1.21x across 198. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 17 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.75x compares with 1.21x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 287 Initial Claims releases since 2021, XRP's median volatility ratio is 1.18x.

How it compares

Across 287 Initial Claims releases since 2021, XRP's usual price swing is 1.18x. This one was 2.33 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.18x. Thick line: this release, 2.75x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 0.48492 0.48168 0.48201 -0.58% 0.67% 0.46% 1.47M XRP
5 minutes 0.48492 0.47801 0.47972 -1.06% 1.42% 0.87% 7.584M XRP
10 minutes 0.48492 0.47799 0.47961 -1.09% 1.43% 1.05% 12.906M XRP
15 minutes 0.48492 0.47799 0.47962 -1.08% 1.43% 2.04% 15.176M XRP
30 minutes 0.48492 0.47799 0.47904 -1.21% 1.43% 4.13% 26.747M XRP
1 hour 0.48492 0.47555 0.47656 -1.73% 1.93% 4.31% 40.74M XRP
2 hours 0.48492 0.4725 0.47533 -2.00% 2.56% 4.31% 64.648M XRP
4 hours 0.48492 0.4725 0.47981 -1.04% 2.56% 4.61% 113.547M XRP
6 hours 0.48492 0.4725 0.47844 -1.33% 2.56% 4.61% 158.83M XRP
8 hours 0.4905 0.46787 0.47981 2.13% 4.61% 3.00% 241.314M XRP
12 hours 0.48492 0.45848 0.46228 -4.88% 5.45% 5.08% 276.702M XRP

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for Initial Claims Reaction
Bitcoin 1.23x 1.50x Quiet
Ethereum 1.37x 1.46x Quiet
XRP 2.75x 1.18x Exceptional
BNB 1.50x 1.42x Quiet
Solana 1.13x 1.38x Quiet
Dogecoin 1.39x 1.38x Quiet
TRON 1.67x 1.33x Ordinary
Cardano 2.00x 1.35x Strong
Chainlink 1.55x 1.43x Ordinary
Bitcoin Cash 1.48x 1.34x Quiet
Hedera 1.17x 1.32x Quiet
Avalanche 0.76x 1.42x Quiet
Litecoin 1.15x 1.39x Quiet
Uniswap 1.48x 1.34x Quiet
Polkadot 1.37x 1.32x Quiet
Aave 1.39x 1.38x Quiet
NEAR Protocol 1.77x 1.24x Strong
POL (prev. MATIC) 0.84x 1.40x Quiet
Filecoin 0.92x 1.27x Quiet

What is Initial Jobless Claims?

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.

Every Initial Claims release for XRP

Questions about this page

Is 2.75x a lot?

For an Initial Claims release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.18x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next Initial Claims do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range XRP moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.