BTC Volatility Analysis for GDP Report, 25th January 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Gross Domestic Product Report came in at 3.3% for 2023 4th Quarter, against 4.9% in 2023 3rd Quarter. The economy's output is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $39,854.46 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.35% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.81% of its price, against 0.51% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.86x, against 1.68x for a typical GDP Report release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.86x, against a typical 1.94x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, GDP Report releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.22x across 16, against 1.61x across 52. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.86x compares with 2.22x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 68 GDP Report releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.68x.

About Gross Domestic Product Report

The GDP report is one of the BEA's most crucial outputs. It tells us the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. GDP gives the public an indication of an economy's size. Moreover, when compared against prior periods, this data can reveal whether the economy is expanding (producing more goods and services) or contracting (registering declining output). The direction of GDP helps central banks determine whether it is necessary to intervene with monetary policy or not.