Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 6.58x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 15.92x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,623.20 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.03% lower, and an hour later 1.55% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.95% of its price, against 0.52% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 12 June 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 6.58x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered a strong reaction to the June 12 Federal Reserve decision that left the target range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The move stood out because decisions that hold the rate have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 3.49x since 2021, yet this release exceeded even the broader event median.
Price action aligned with the elevated ratios. Ethereum opened the release window at $3,623.20 and traded 1.03 percent lower within fifteen minutes and 1.55 percent lower within one hour. The high-to-low range expanded to 1.95 percent of spot in the hour after the announcement, more than three times the 0.52 percent range seen in the preceding hour. These figures confirm the reaction qualified as strong relative to the event's own history.
The outcome illustrates that a hold decision can still generate above-median volatility when other elements coincide with the release. Across the longer record, changes in the target rate have produced larger median moves than holds, yet this instance shows the distribution around those medians remains wide.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,508.56Close
3,510.3024h Change
1.74 (0.05%)24h High
3,659.0124h Low
3,476.2124h Volume
411,544 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
12th June, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3621.01 | 3623.40 | 3621.00 | 3623.20 | 0.06% | 0.07% | 90 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3556.00 | 3590.60 | -0.91% | 1.88% | 7,844 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3620.37 | 3625.70 | 3620.19 | 3623.20 | 0.08% | 0.15% | 885 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3556.00 | 3593.42 | -0.83% | 1.88% | 17,356 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3608.71 | 3625.70 | 3608.20 | 3623.20 | 0.40% | 0.48% | 1,535 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3556.00 | 3578.19 | -1.26% | 1.88% | 28,822 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3610.62 | 3625.70 | 3607.00 | 3623.20 | 0.35% | 0.52% | 1,959 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3556.00 | 3585.79 | -1.04% | 1.88% | 31,189 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3616.79 | 3625.70 | 3607.00 | 3623.20 | 0.18% | 0.52% | 3,421 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3556.00 | 3591.81 | -0.87% | 1.88% | 37,117 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3616.41 | 3625.70 | 3607.00 | 3623.20 | 0.19% | 0.52% | 7,334 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3553.33 | 3567.15 | -1.57% | 1.95% | 52,172 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3618.32 | 3625.70 | 3588.00 | 3623.20 | 0.13% | 1.04% | 20,624 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3513.32 | 3529.01 | -2.67% | 3.05% | 84,289 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3615.06 | 3646.70 | 3588.00 | 3623.20 | 0.22% | 1.61% | 56,832 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3513.32 | 3566.01 | -1.60% | 3.05% | 101,242 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3531.73 | 3659.01 | 3531.40 | 3623.20 | 2.52% | 3.49% | 174,347 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3513.32 | 3560.12 | -1.77% | 3.05% | 109,316 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3508.56 | 3659.01 | 3507.70 | 3615.07 | 2.95% | 4.14% | 167,160 ETH |
| During | 3615.06 | 3646.70 | 3513.32 | 3566.01 | -1.38% | 3.66% | 158,074 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3508.56 | 3659.01 | 3507.70 | 3623.20 | 3.16% | 4.14% | 223,992 ETH |
| During | 3623.20 | 3623.98 | 3476.21 | 3510.30 | -3.22% | 4.08% | 187,552 ETH |
