Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 31 July 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,315.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.43% lower, and an hour later 0.07% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.11% of its price, against 1.25% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.33x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.46x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.33x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum delivered a muted reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that left the target range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. Volatility expanded only 2.33 times normal levels in the quarter hour after the release, against the 4.18 times median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate events since 2021. Volume rose by a factor of 3.46, well short of the 7.50 times typical for the event. The price range actually narrowed in the hour that followed.
Holds have historically produced smaller moves than changes. Across the sample, decisions that altered the rate generated a median volatility ratio of 5.50x, while holds averaged 3.49x. This release fell below even that hold benchmark. The outcome therefore reflected both the nature of the announcement and the coin's measured sensitivity to unchanged policy.
Traders preparing for the next Federal Interest Rate release can note that the record shows holds coincide with reduced volatility for Ethereum relative to the event median. Whether the same pattern repeats will depend on the size of any surprise and the surrounding data calendar.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,301.17Close
3,185.3224h Change
-115.85 (-3.64%)24h High
3,350.0024h Low
3,136.4724h Volume
287,058 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
31st July, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3311.11 | 3315.40 | 3310.80 | 3315.40 | 0.13% | 0.14% | 264 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3319.80 | 3294.79 | 3303.72 | -0.35% | 0.75% | 1,697 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3317.00 | 3319.79 | 3309.05 | 3315.40 | -0.05% | 0.32% | 1,089 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3294.79 | 3301.82 | -0.41% | 0.89% | 4,777 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3319.81 | 3321.79 | 3309.05 | 3315.40 | -0.13% | 0.38% | 1,714 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3294.79 | 3298.10 | -0.52% | 0.89% | 6,339 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3322.23 | 3326.79 | 3309.05 | 3315.40 | -0.21% | 0.53% | 3,022 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3290.76 | 3301.20 | -0.43% | 1.01% | 7,489 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3305.51 | 3326.79 | 3303.60 | 3315.40 | 0.30% | 0.70% | 5,506 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3287.60 | 3291.27 | -0.73% | 1.11% | 9,929 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3290.43 | 3326.79 | 3285.25 | 3315.40 | 0.75% | 1.25% | 7,866 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3287.60 | 3317.79 | 0.07% | 1.11% | 14,605 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3302.35 | 3326.79 | 3282.76 | 3315.40 | 0.39% | 1.32% | 15,468 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3245.00 | 3266.19 | -1.51% | 2.39% | 36,104 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3331.60 | 3340.55 | 3282.76 | 3315.40 | -0.49% | 1.73% | 46,398 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3213.75 | 3238.89 | -2.36% | 3.33% | 71,790 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3322.88 | 3350.00 | 3282.76 | 3315.40 | -0.23% | 2.01% | 68,676 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3213.75 | 3232.74 | -2.56% | 3.33% | 82,222 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3301.17 | 3350.00 | 3298.26 | 3331.60 | 0.91% | 1.54% | 69,721 ETH |
| During | 3331.60 | 3340.55 | 3213.75 | 3238.89 | -2.86% | 3.80% | 118,188 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3301.17 | 3350.00 | 3282.76 | 3315.40 | 0.43% | 2.01% | 116,119 ETH |
| During | 3315.40 | 3324.38 | 3136.47 | 3185.32 | -4.08% | 5.65% | 170,939 ETH |
