Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 July 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $38,961.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.07% higher, and an hour later 3.8% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.44% of its price, against 3.72% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.40x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.37x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.40x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed a muted response to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold its target range at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. The price stood at $38,961.01 at the 2:00 PM release and rose 1.07 percent within fifteen minutes and 3.8 percent within an hour, while the high-to-low range reached 4.44 percent against 3.72 percent beforehand. Volatility registered 2.40x and volume 2.37x relative to a normal quarter-hour that day, both well below the medians of 4.29x and 5.81x recorded across prior Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021.
Rate-hold announcements have historically produced smaller moves than rate-change announcements, with a median volatility ratio of 3.31x across twenty-eight such events compared with 5.37x across eighteen changes. This release fell short even of that lower benchmark, registering 2.40x against the 3.31x median for holds. The outcome therefore aligned with the pattern that unchanged policy tends to coincide with reduced volatility, yet it still registered noticeably quieter than the typical hold.
Traders monitoring subsequent Fed Interest Rate statements can note that the event's overall median volatility ratio stands at 4.29x across forty-six releases since 2021. A quiet reaction on a hold therefore fits the established record rather than marking an exception that would alter expectations for later meetings of the same type.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
40,127.39Close
40,108.9224h Change
-18.47 (-0.05%)24h High
40,900.0024h Low
38,772.0024h Volume
88,957 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
28th July, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 38990.93 | 38994.62 | 38916.16 | 38961.00 | -0.08% | 0.20% | 113 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 38967.26 | 38772.00 | 38842.05 | -0.31% | 0.50% | 304 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39004.00 | 39053.92 | 38860.02 | 38961.00 | -0.11% | 0.50% | 496 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 39300.00 | 38772.00 | 39183.07 | 0.57% | 1.34% | 1,181 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39182.15 | 39210.42 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -0.57% | 1.05% | 1,587 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 39300.00 | 38772.00 | 39221.51 | 0.66% | 1.34% | 1,510 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39190.41 | 39327.34 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -0.59% | 1.34% | 2,002 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 39420.04 | 38772.00 | 39378.24 | 1.06% | 1.64% | 1,860 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39584.97 | 39665.61 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -1.60% | 2.18% | 4,465 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 39727.56 | 38772.00 | 39539.02 | 1.46% | 2.41% | 3,091 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 40119.86 | 40247.99 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -2.97% | 3.60% | 6,663 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 40500.00 | 38772.00 | 40440.99 | 3.66% | 4.27% | 7,208 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39689.04 | 40247.99 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -1.87% | 3.60% | 10,054 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 40680.07 | 38772.00 | 40388.61 | 3.53% | 4.69% | 11,737 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39649.77 | 40247.99 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -1.77% | 3.60% | 17,325 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 40680.07 | 38772.00 | 40094.77 | 2.83% | 4.69% | 16,524 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40750.84 | 40871.59 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -4.59% | 5.07% | 30,104 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 40680.07 | 38772.00 | 40019.56 | 2.65% | 4.69% | 20,771 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40127.39 | 40900.00 | 39226.76 | 39649.78 | -1.20% | 4.09% | 38,365 BTC |
| During | 39649.77 | 40680.07 | 38772.00 | 40094.77 | 1.11% | 4.69% | 33,849 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40127.39 | 40900.00 | 38800.00 | 38961.00 | -2.99% | 5.13% | 55,690 BTC |
| During | 38961.01 | 40680.07 | 38772.00 | 40108.92 | 2.86% | 4.69% | 33,267 BTC |
