Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 26 July 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $29,268.91 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.24% higher, and an hour later 0.37% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.92% of its price, against 0.28% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.44x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.93x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 5.44x compares with 5.37x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Its volatility ratio reached 5.44x, close to the 4.29x median recorded across 46 releases since 2021. The price advanced 0.24% in the first fifteen minutes and 0.37% after one hour, while the high-to-low range widened to 0.92% of spot from 0.28% in the prior hour.
The outcome aligned with the pattern for decisions that alter the target range. Releases that changed the rate have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18 instances, compared with 3.31x across the 28 instances that left the rate unchanged. This release raised the range by 25 basis points to 5.25-5.50% and generated a ratio of 5.44x, matching the level its circumstances would indicate.
Volume expanded to 6.93x against the 5.81x typical for the event, confirming participation consistent with the volatility reading. Across the full set of observations the median ratio stands at 4.29x, so the move observed here remained within the established range for rate decisions.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
29,268.12Close
29,460.0024h Change
191.88 (0.65%)24h High
29,690.0024h Low
29,160.3324h Volume
32,300 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
26th July, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 29254.00 | 29269.78 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | 0.05% | 0.09% | 66 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29362.45 | 29255.01 | 29300.70 | 0.11% | 0.37% | 239 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29315.51 | 29322.50 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.16% | 0.27% | 236 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29362.45 | 29230.01 | 29320.00 | 0.17% | 0.45% | 510 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29303.10 | 29322.50 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.12% | 0.27% | 263 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29362.45 | 29230.01 | 29304.74 | 0.12% | 0.45% | 819 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29302.00 | 29322.50 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.11% | 0.27% | 364 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29437.79 | 29230.01 | 29338.49 | 0.24% | 0.71% | 1,575 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29292.00 | 29322.50 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.08% | 0.27% | 503 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29437.79 | 29230.01 | 29292.74 | 0.08% | 0.71% | 2,345 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 29302.43 | 29325.00 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.11% | 0.28% | 960 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29499.00 | 29230.01 | 29377.50 | 0.37% | 0.91% | 4,710 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29324.01 | 29369.55 | 29243.24 | 29268.90 | -0.19% | 0.43% | 2,440 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29499.00 | 29195.00 | 29401.93 | 0.45% | 1.03% | 6,924 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29306.54 | 29369.55 | 29206.89 | 29268.90 | -0.13% | 0.55% | 5,406 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29690.00 | 29195.00 | 29466.00 | 0.67% | 1.67% | 13,309 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29175.39 | 29369.55 | 29166.36 | 29268.90 | 0.32% | 0.69% | 7,620 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29690.00 | 29195.00 | 29351.96 | 0.28% | 1.67% | 15,888 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29268.12 | 29321.69 | 29160.33 | 29306.54 | 0.13% | 0.55% | 6,914 BTC |
| During | 29306.54 | 29690.00 | 29195.00 | 29466.00 | 0.54% | 1.67% | 18,715 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29268.12 | 29369.55 | 29160.33 | 29268.90 | 0.00% | 0.71% | 12,320 BTC |
| During | 29268.91 | 29690.00 | 29195.00 | 29460.00 | 0.65% | 1.67% | 19,980 BTC |
