Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 20 September 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $27,195.13 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.07% lower, and an hour later 0.11% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.81% of its price, against 0.45% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.47x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.90x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.47x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Ordinary reaction to a steady target range
Bitcoin's volatility ratio of 3.47x sits close to the 3.31x median recorded across the 28 prior holds since 2021 and below the 4.29x median for all 46 Fed rate announcements in the same span. Volume expanded 4.90x against its typical 5.81x benchmark for the event.
The price action stayed contained. Bitcoin opened the release window at $27,195.13, eased 0.07 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.11 percent after an hour, while the hourly range reached only 0.81 percent. Those outcomes match the pattern Clometrix identifies for holds, which have produced smaller median moves than the 5.37x recorded on the 18 occasions when the committee adjusted the rate.
The release arrived without an accompanying rate change and therefore carried the lower surprise magnitude typical of such decisions.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
27,024.99Close
27,071.0224h Change
46.03 (0.17%)24h High
27,300.0024h Low
26,800.0024h Volume
32,740 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
20th September, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 27240.00 | 27243.00 | 27190.00 | 27195.12 | -0.17% | 0.19% | 63 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27255.00 | 27099.26 | 27132.06 | -0.23% | 0.57% | 341 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27198.98 | 27243.00 | 27190.00 | 27195.12 | -0.01% | 0.19% | 172 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27255.00 | 27079.38 | 27171.83 | -0.09% | 0.64% | 845 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27194.00 | 27243.00 | 27190.00 | 27195.12 | 0.00% | 0.19% | 253 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27255.00 | 27079.38 | 27174.21 | -0.08% | 0.64% | 1,134 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27197.72 | 27243.00 | 27181.02 | 27195.12 | -0.01% | 0.23% | 310 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27255.00 | 27079.38 | 27176.66 | -0.07% | 0.64% | 1,298 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 27255.00 | 27270.00 | 27158.00 | 27195.12 | -0.22% | 0.41% | 649 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27255.00 | 27079.38 | 27174.99 | -0.07% | 0.64% | 1,511 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 27161.14 | 27277.36 | 27155.64 | 27195.12 | 0.12% | 0.45% | 1,317 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27300.00 | 27079.38 | 27165.00 | -0.11% | 0.81% | 2,906 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27180.62 | 27277.36 | 27140.05 | 27195.12 | 0.05% | 0.50% | 2,364 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27300.00 | 26800.00 | 26930.61 | -0.98% | 1.83% | 6,615 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27160.10 | 27277.36 | 27051.23 | 27195.12 | 0.13% | 0.83% | 5,815 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27300.00 | 26800.00 | 27111.16 | -0.31% | 1.83% | 9,181 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27098.07 | 27277.36 | 26997.94 | 27195.12 | 0.36% | 1.02% | 8,600 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27300.00 | 26800.00 | 27125.00 | -0.26% | 1.83% | 10,842 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27024.99 | 27199.31 | 26936.79 | 27160.09 | 0.50% | 0.97% | 11,074 BTC |
| During | 27160.10 | 27300.00 | 26800.00 | 27111.16 | -0.18% | 1.83% | 14,996 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 27024.99 | 27277.36 | 26936.79 | 27195.12 | 0.63% | 1.25% | 16,889 BTC |
| During | 27195.13 | 27300.00 | 26800.00 | 27071.02 | -0.46% | 1.83% | 15,851 BTC |
