Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 3 May 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5.00–5.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $28,576.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.14% higher, and an hour later 0.46% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.03% of its price, against 1.4% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.47x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.72x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 3.47x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed an ordinary reaction to the 3 May 2023 Federal Open Market Committee decision that lifted the target range by 25 basis points to 5.00-5.25 percent. The price stood at $28,576.70 at the 2:00 PM release. It rose 0.14 percent in the first fifteen minutes and finished 0.46 percent lower after one hour, with a high-to-low range of 2.03 percent against 1.4 percent beforehand.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 3.47x for Bitcoin in the quarter hour of the statement, below the 4.29x median across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume reached 5.72x against a typical 5.81x. The outcome sits below the 5.37x median volatility seen when the committee has changed rates in the same period.
This release therefore produced less movement than releases that altered the target range normally generate. The subdued response arrived alongside a quarter-hour volatility reading well inside the event's longer-term central tendency.
Traders watching the next comparable announcement may note that a rate change alone does not guarantee an outsized move; the magnitude of the reaction can vary even when policy shifts.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
28,477.20Close
29,203.9024h Change
726.70 (2.49%)24h High
29,266.6624h Low
28,113.6924h Volume
65,678 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
3rd May, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 28563.99 | 28582.19 | 28508.80 | 28576.70 | 0.04% | 0.26% | 97 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28530.91 | 28599.38 | 0.08% | 0.93% | 700 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28636.75 | 28646.03 | 28434.09 | 28576.70 | -0.21% | 0.74% | 680 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28486.44 | 28563.70 | -0.05% | 1.09% | 1,785 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28633.42 | 28664.27 | 28434.09 | 28576.70 | -0.20% | 0.80% | 884 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28486.44 | 28556.75 | -0.07% | 1.09% | 2,365 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28722.80 | 28748.22 | 28434.09 | 28576.70 | -0.51% | 1.09% | 1,357 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28486.44 | 28615.84 | 0.14% | 1.09% | 2,794 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28577.50 | 28780.00 | 28434.09 | 28576.70 | 0.00% | 1.20% | 2,699 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28486.44 | 28517.92 | -0.21% | 1.09% | 3,874 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 28476.96 | 28780.00 | 28380.00 | 28576.70 | 0.35% | 1.39% | 4,680 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28218.65 | 28444.29 | -0.47% | 2.02% | 8,653 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28311.52 | 28780.00 | 28247.41 | 28576.70 | 0.93% | 1.85% | 7,063 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 28800.00 | 28211.08 | 28322.98 | -0.90% | 2.04% | 12,054 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28373.55 | 28780.00 | 28113.69 | 28576.70 | 0.71% | 2.32% | 11,801 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 29057.62 | 28211.08 | 28923.52 | 1.20% | 2.91% | 19,681 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28543.73 | 28780.00 | 28113.69 | 28576.70 | 0.12% | 2.32% | 20,745 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 29266.66 | 28211.08 | 29026.16 | 1.55% | 3.61% | 26,405 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28477.20 | 28767.93 | 28128.31 | 28373.55 | -0.37% | 2.22% | 18,527 BTC |
| During | 28373.55 | 29057.62 | 28113.69 | 28923.52 | 1.90% | 3.25% | 31,482 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28477.20 | 28780.00 | 28113.69 | 28576.70 | 0.35% | 2.32% | 30,328 BTC |
| During | 28576.70 | 29266.66 | 28211.08 | 29203.90 | 2.15% | 3.61% | 35,350 BTC |
