Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.84x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.58x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $28,516.34 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.55% lower, and an hour later 1.71% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.81% of its price, against 1.17% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 22 March 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75–5.00%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 6.84x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision on 22 March 2023. Its volatility ratio reached 6.84x in the quarter hour of the release, well above the 4.29x median observed across 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021. Volume expanded to 10.58x against a typical 5.81x. The price stood at $28,516.34 at 2:00 PM EDT, then fell 0.55 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.71 percent within one hour, while the hourly range widened to 3.81 percent from 1.17 percent beforehand.
The outcome exceeded the median volatility of 5.37x recorded for the eighteen prior decisions that altered the target range. The committee raised the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points to 4.75-5.00 percent, placing the move among those that have historically produced larger price swings than unchanged settings. This release therefore produced a larger response than the rate-change cohort alone would indicate. Traders reviewing future Fed Interest Rate releases may note that decisions accompanied by updated projections have tended to generate elevated volatility when the rate itself moves.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
28,201.53Close
27,629.1824h Change
-572.35 (-2.07%)24h High
28,868.0524h Low
26,601.8024h Volume
198,064 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
22nd March, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 28537.42 | 28558.97 | 28450.00 | 28516.34 | -0.07% | 0.38% | 462 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28848.00 | 28516.33 | 28713.95 | 0.69% | 1.15% | 2,937 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28441.89 | 28558.98 | 28417.47 | 28516.34 | 0.26% | 0.50% | 1,971 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28848.00 | 28230.00 | 28617.70 | 0.35% | 2.14% | 7,567 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28358.05 | 28558.98 | 28348.69 | 28516.34 | 0.56% | 0.74% | 2,987 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 28230.00 | 28531.16 | 0.05% | 2.21% | 11,545 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28386.81 | 28558.98 | 28316.66 | 28516.34 | 0.45% | 0.85% | 3,635 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 28230.00 | 28358.57 | -0.56% | 2.21% | 13,533 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 28383.50 | 28558.98 | 28315.00 | 28516.34 | 0.47% | 0.85% | 6,132 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 28230.00 | 28470.01 | -0.16% | 2.21% | 16,500 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 28647.26 | 28647.27 | 28315.00 | 28516.34 | -0.46% | 1.16% | 11,311 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 27781.51 | 28027.99 | -1.74% | 3.76% | 33,039 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28595.06 | 28703.00 | 28315.00 | 28516.34 | -0.28% | 1.35% | 16,862 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 26650.27 | 26667.33 | -6.93% | 7.68% | 67,383 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28285.55 | 28736.00 | 28279.69 | 28516.34 | 0.81% | 1.59% | 41,393 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 26601.80 | 27083.55 | -5.29% | 7.85% | 86,046 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28122.73 | 28736.00 | 28105.35 | 28516.34 | 1.38% | 2.19% | 52,539 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 26601.80 | 27250.97 | -4.64% | 7.85% | 95,706 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28201.53 | 28391.99 | 28000.00 | 28285.56 | 0.30% | 1.38% | 39,178 BTC |
| During | 28285.55 | 28868.05 | 26601.80 | 27083.55 | -4.44% | 7.85% | 127,438 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 28201.53 | 28736.00 | 28000.00 | 28516.34 | 1.10% | 2.56% | 80,571 BTC |
| During | 28516.34 | 28868.05 | 26601.80 | 27629.18 | -3.21% | 7.85% | 117,494 BTC |
