Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.96x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.23x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $21,618.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.55% higher, and an hour later 4.33% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 5.01% of its price, against 1.32% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 27 July 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 2.25–2.50%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 6.96x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision on 27 July 2022. The volatility ratio reached 6.96x in the quarter hour of the release, well above the 4.29x median across 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.23x against the typical 5.81x. The outcome exceeded the 5.37x median volatility seen in the 18 prior decisions that altered the target range.
Price action confirmed the elevated activity. Bitcoin stood at $21,618.72 at the moment of the statement and rose 1.55 percent within fifteen minutes and 4.33 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range over that hour reached 5.01 percent of spot, compared with 1.32 percent in the preceding hour.
The 75 basis point increase to the 2.25 to 2.50 percent target range aligned with the pattern that rate changes have produced larger moves than unchanged settings. This release nevertheless surpassed the median for those changing decisions, indicating an outsized response relative to the event class itself.
Traders reviewing subsequent meetings may note that volatility ratios have varied with the policy stance taken, yet each release remains independent and the historical median supplies context rather than a forward expectation.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
21,248.63Close
23,242.7924h Change
1994.16 (8.58%)24h High
23,460.5824h Low
21,129.6524h Volume
226,625 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
27th July, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 21624.62 | 21630.43 | 21599.20 | 21620.55 | -0.02% | 0.14% | 132 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 21850.00 | 21617.24 | 21764.41 | 0.67% | 1.07% | 1,456 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21678.28 | 21695.44 | 21599.20 | 21620.55 | -0.27% | 0.44% | 804 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 22222.00 | 21617.24 | 21958.46 | 1.55% | 2.72% | 6,901 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21670.37 | 21695.44 | 21599.20 | 21620.55 | -0.23% | 0.44% | 1,392 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 22222.00 | 21617.24 | 21981.93 | 1.65% | 2.72% | 9,977 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21707.06 | 21724.64 | 21599.20 | 21620.55 | -0.40% | 0.58% | 2,496 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 22222.00 | 21617.24 | 21954.69 | 1.53% | 2.72% | 12,125 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21682.25 | 21740.00 | 21599.20 | 21620.55 | -0.29% | 0.65% | 5,087 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 22222.00 | 21617.24 | 22091.34 | 2.14% | 2.72% | 16,406 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 21530.71 | 21740.00 | 21455.25 | 21620.55 | 0.42% | 1.31% | 10,583 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 22700.00 | 21617.24 | 22554.45 | 4.15% | 4.77% | 36,035 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21530.86 | 21740.00 | 21455.25 | 21620.55 | 0.41% | 1.31% | 22,715 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 23112.63 | 21617.24 | 22773.62 | 5.07% | 6.47% | 59,626 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21463.90 | 21740.00 | 21392.49 | 21620.55 | 0.72% | 1.60% | 37,552 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 23112.63 | 21617.24 | 22677.84 | 4.67% | 6.47% | 73,834 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21200.60 | 21740.00 | 21157.07 | 21620.55 | 1.94% | 2.68% | 54,175 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 23112.63 | 21617.24 | 22952.45 | 5.81% | 6.47% | 90,964 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21248.63 | 21484.28 | 21129.65 | 21463.90 | 1.00% | 1.65% | 51,005 BTC |
| During | 21463.90 | 23112.63 | 21392.49 | 22677.84 | 5.35% | 7.44% | 111,386 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21248.63 | 21740.00 | 21129.65 | 21620.55 | 1.72% | 2.81% | 88,557 BTC |
| During | 21618.72 | 23460.58 | 21617.24 | 23242.79 | 6.99% | 7.86% | 138,068 BTC |
