Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 February 2023 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.50–4.75%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,580.87 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 2.32% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.55% of its price, against 1.23% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.70x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.45x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.70x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75 percent on this occasion. Ethereum showed little immediate movement, remaining unchanged fifteen minutes after the 2:00 PM release before rising 2.32 percent an hour later. Its high-to-low range expanded to 4.55 percent of price in that first hour from 1.23 percent beforehand.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 4.70x for Ethereum, modestly above the 4.18x median across all 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume came in at 7.45x against the event typical of 7.50x. Rate-changing decisions have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.50x in the record, so this outcome sat below the level its circumstances would normally generate.
The combination of a measured rate adjustment and an ordinary volatility outcome left the release in line with the event's established behavior for Ethereum. A trader reviewing the pattern would note that similar policy moves have tended to produce larger price ranges than this one delivered, without any indication that the next instance must follow the same path.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,574.93Close
1,666.5424h Change
91.61 (5.50%)24h High
1,696.3824h Low
1,555.1824h Volume
597,604 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st February, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1583.00 | 1585.22 | 1577.00 | 1580.88 | -0.13% | 0.52% | 3,497 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1586.27 | 1565.50 | 1579.25 | -0.10% | 1.31% | 10,401 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1578.10 | 1586.56 | 1577.00 | 1580.88 | 0.18% | 0.60% | 6,250 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1589.57 | 1565.50 | 1574.83 | -0.38% | 1.51% | 19,074 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1575.97 | 1586.56 | 1575.27 | 1580.88 | 0.31% | 0.71% | 7,210 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1589.57 | 1565.50 | 1581.12 | 0.02% | 1.51% | 25,858 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1579.57 | 1586.56 | 1575.15 | 1580.88 | 0.08% | 0.72% | 8,377 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1589.57 | 1565.50 | 1580.75 | -0.01% | 1.51% | 28,271 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1582.73 | 1586.56 | 1575.15 | 1580.88 | -0.12% | 0.72% | 14,821 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1589.57 | 1565.50 | 1574.64 | -0.40% | 1.51% | 32,638 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1571.54 | 1586.56 | 1567.13 | 1580.88 | 0.59% | 1.22% | 23,235 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1627.06 | 1555.18 | 1617.48 | 2.26% | 4.42% | 112,353 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1575.73 | 1586.56 | 1566.92 | 1580.88 | 0.33% | 1.24% | 33,872 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1639.80 | 1555.18 | 1632.69 | 3.17% | 5.16% | 165,876 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1584.89 | 1586.56 | 1566.92 | 1580.88 | -0.25% | 1.24% | 66,101 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1647.77 | 1555.18 | 1637.89 | 3.48% | 5.62% | 217,783 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1579.18 | 1589.80 | 1566.92 | 1580.88 | 0.11% | 1.44% | 100,599 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1696.38 | 1555.18 | 1692.50 | 6.60% | 8.32% | 319,089 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1574.93 | 1589.80 | 1566.24 | 1584.89 | 0.63% | 1.48% | 99,970 ETH |
| During | 1584.89 | 1647.77 | 1555.18 | 1637.89 | 3.24% | 5.62% | 283,884 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1574.93 | 1589.80 | 1566.24 | 1580.88 | 0.38% | 1.48% | 166,071 ETH |
| During | 1580.87 | 1696.38 | 1555.18 | 1666.54 | 5.14% | 8.32% | 431,533 ETH |
