ETH Volatility Analysis for Fed Interest Rate, 14th December 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 11.53x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 21.47x, against a typical 7.50x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,333.16 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.16% lower, and an hour later 1.92% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.18% of its price, against 2.93% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 14 December 2022 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25–4.50%.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 11.53x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision on 14 December 2022. Volatility reached 11.53x in the quarter hour of the release compared with the event median of 4.18x since 2021, while volume expanded to 21.47x against a typical 7.50x. Both ratios measure the release window against an ordinary quarter hour the same day.

The price stood at $1,333.16 at the moment of the announcement. It fell 1.16 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.92 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range in the post-release hour reached 3.18 percent of spot, wider than the 2.93 percent range observed in the preceding hour.

The committee raised the federal funds target range by fifty basis points to 4.25-4.50 percent. Across the sample of forty-six Fed rate decisions since 2021, those that altered the rate produced a median volatility ratio of 5.50x, well above the 3.49x median for decisions that left rates unchanged. This release exceeded even that elevated benchmark.

Traders reviewing the record will note that rate-changing decisions have historically generated larger moves than holds. The magnitude observed here nevertheless surpassed the conditional median by a wide margin, underscoring the scope for outsized reactions when policy shifts coincide with updated projections.

About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,322.04

1,289.56

24h Change

-32.48 (-2.52%)

24h High

1,352.72

24h Low

1,281.12

24h Volume

599,156 ETH

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee

14th December, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	1323.02	1334.59	1322.41	1332.73	0.73%	0.91%	9,310 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1317.99	1328.32	-0.36%	1.89%	14,545 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	1344.37	1346.88	1313.60	1332.73	-0.87%	2.47%	29,843 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1305.01	1319.77	-1.01%	2.86%	47,684 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	1345.04	1346.88	1313.60	1332.73	-0.92%	2.47%	32,923 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1305.01	1314.57	-1.41%	2.86%	58,014 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	1345.72	1346.88	1313.60	1332.73	-0.97%	2.47%	36,124 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1305.01	1317.75	-1.17%	2.86%	64,422 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	1343.84	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	-0.83%	2.89%	60,251 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1305.01	1315.59	-1.34%	2.86%	78,426 ETH

1 Hour
Before	1335.07	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	-0.18%	2.89%	81,848 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1301.00	1307.54	-1.96%	3.16%	123,717 ETH

2 Hours
Before	1336.24	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	-0.26%	2.89%	92,710 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1301.00	1308.51	-1.88%	3.16%	163,598 ETH

4 Hours
Before	1340.80	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	-0.61%	2.89%	148,798 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1301.00	1311.79	-1.63%	3.16%	183,270 ETH

6 Hours
Before	1332.66	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	0.01%	2.89%	210,861 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1301.00	1304.80	-2.17%	3.16%	203,369 ETH

8 Hours
Before	1322.04	1342.50	1319.32	1340.79	1.40%	1.73%	145,972 ETH
During	1340.80	1352.72	1301.00	1311.79	-2.21%	3.82%	332,068 ETH

12 Hours
Before	1322.04	1352.72	1313.60	1332.73	0.80%	2.89%	294,771 ETH
During	1333.16	1343.43	1281.12	1289.56	-3.38%	4.64%	304,386 ETH