Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 February 2023 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.50–4.75%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $23,075.53 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 1.35% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.18% of its price, against 0.8% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.34x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.55x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.34x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed an ordinary reaction to the February 2023 Federal Open Market Committee decision that raised the target range by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75 percent. The price stood at $23,075.53 at the 2:00 PM release, remained unchanged fifteen minutes later, and rose 1.35 percent within the hour. Its volatility ratio reached 4.34x against the event median of 4.29x since 2021, while the volume ratio of 4.55x fell below the typical 5.81x.
The release changed the policy rate, a category that has produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across eighteen instances since 2021, compared with 3.31x for the twenty-eight decisions that left rates unchanged. Bitcoin's 4.34x reading therefore fell short of what rate-changing decisions have typically delivered. The overall median across all forty-six Fed Interest Rate releases remains 4.29x.
Traders can note that the measured response aligned closely with the historical pattern for this event even though the decision altered the target range. The record supplies no basis for expecting either larger or smaller moves from the next comparable release.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
23,065.77Close
23,786.4624h Change
720.69 (3.03%)24h High
24,255.0024h Low
22,760.2324h Volume
341,724 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st February, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 23100.45 | 23128.00 | 23030.01 | 23077.26 | -0.10% | 0.42% | 1,385 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23126.33 | 22915.00 | 23054.38 | -0.09% | 0.91% | 2,026 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23059.38 | 23128.00 | 23030.01 | 23077.26 | 0.08% | 0.42% | 2,944 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23200.51 | 22915.00 | 22994.96 | -0.35% | 1.23% | 5,861 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23035.57 | 23128.00 | 23030.01 | 23077.26 | 0.18% | 0.42% | 3,648 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23200.51 | 22915.00 | 23089.37 | 0.06% | 1.23% | 9,426 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23070.92 | 23128.00 | 23027.18 | 23077.26 | 0.03% | 0.44% | 4,608 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23200.51 | 22915.00 | 23082.05 | 0.03% | 1.23% | 11,387 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23104.99 | 23128.00 | 23027.18 | 23077.26 | -0.12% | 0.44% | 8,015 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23200.51 | 22915.00 | 22996.95 | -0.34% | 1.23% | 15,664 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 22993.32 | 23128.00 | 22943.47 | 23077.26 | 0.36% | 0.80% | 13,756 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23494.77 | 22760.23 | 23385.99 | 1.33% | 3.13% | 48,362 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23000.62 | 23128.00 | 22929.00 | 23077.26 | 0.33% | 0.86% | 22,004 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23650.00 | 22760.23 | 23573.11 | 2.11% | 3.76% | 77,392 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23101.00 | 23128.00 | 22918.20 | 23077.26 | -0.10% | 0.91% | 47,731 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 23812.66 | 22760.23 | 23714.50 | 2.69% | 4.42% | 111,075 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23061.34 | 23144.85 | 22918.20 | 23077.26 | 0.07% | 0.98% | 75,370 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 24255.00 | 22760.23 | 24189.85 | 4.61% | 6.16% | 148,338 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23065.77 | 23144.85 | 22919.33 | 23101.00 | 0.15% | 0.97% | 82,320 BTC |
| During | 23101.00 | 23812.66 | 22760.23 | 23714.50 | 2.59% | 4.42% | 158,806 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23065.77 | 23144.85 | 22918.20 | 23077.26 | 0.05% | 0.98% | 130,051 BTC |
| During | 23075.53 | 24255.00 | 22760.23 | 23786.46 | 2.99% | 6.16% | 211,673 BTC |
