Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 12.73x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 28.06x, against a typical 7.50x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,399.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 5.75% lower, and an hour later 1.7% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 7.57% of its price, against 4.24% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 21 September 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.00–3.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 12.73x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an exceptional reaction to the September 2022 Federal Reserve decision. Volatility reached 12.73x its normal quarter-hour level, more than three times the 4.18x median observed across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 28.06x against a typical 7.50x. The move exceeded the stronger response normally seen when the committee changes rates, which carry a 5.50x median volatility ratio compared with 3.49x when rates are left unchanged.
The committee raised its target range by 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25%. Ethereum stood at $1,399.43 at the moment of release and fell 5.75% within fifteen minutes and 1.7% within the hour. Its high-to-low range widened to 7.57% of price in the hour after the announcement, against 4.24% in the prior hour. That outcome surpassed the 5.50x median recorded for prior rate changes, indicating the price movement went beyond what the policy shift itself typically produces.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,331.47Close
1,258.6324h Change
-72.84 (-5.79%)24h High
1,408.9024h Low
1,220.0024h Volume
1.264M ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
21st September, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1368.62 | 1400.00 | 1368.28 | 1397.50 | 2.07% | 2.27% | 11,045 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1329.67 | -5.25% | 7.52% | 26,361 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1366.52 | 1400.00 | 1366.52 | 1397.50 | 2.22% | 2.39% | 16,097 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1328.13 | -5.37% | 7.52% | 109,117 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1373.98 | 1400.00 | 1362.15 | 1397.50 | 1.68% | 2.70% | 22,258 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1325.82 | -5.55% | 7.52% | 170,839 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1374.02 | 1400.00 | 1362.15 | 1397.50 | 1.68% | 2.70% | 30,385 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1319.00 | -6.10% | 7.52% | 200,384 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1350.68 | 1400.00 | 1350.67 | 1397.50 | 3.35% | 3.52% | 66,932 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1335.77 | -4.77% | 7.52% | 250,621 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1341.09 | 1400.00 | 1340.72 | 1397.50 | 4.04% | 4.23% | 82,432 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1375.61 | -1.73% | 7.52% | 390,619 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1343.06 | 1400.00 | 1340.24 | 1397.50 | 3.90% | 4.27% | 107,020 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1302.95 | 1323.47 | -5.74% | 7.52% | 478,237 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1348.18 | 1400.00 | 1334.01 | 1397.50 | 3.53% | 4.71% | 161,850 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1241.36 | 1253.11 | -11.68% | 11.89% | 623,529 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1350.93 | 1400.00 | 1334.01 | 1397.50 | 3.33% | 4.71% | 219,626 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1220.00 | 1245.78 | -12.33% | 13.41% | 748,174 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1331.47 | 1360.76 | 1316.12 | 1348.19 | 1.24% | 3.28% | 189,055 ETH |
| During | 1348.18 | 1408.90 | 1241.36 | 1253.11 | -7.59% | 11.89% | 785,379 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1331.47 | 1400.00 | 1316.12 | 1397.50 | 4.72% | 5.99% | 350,905 ETH |
| During | 1399.43 | 1408.90 | 1220.00 | 1258.63 | -11.19% | 13.41% | 913,401 ETH |
