ETH Volatility Analysis for Fed Interest Rate, 21st September 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 12.73x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 28.06x, against a typical 7.50x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,399.43 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 5.75% lower, and an hour later 1.7% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 7.57% of its price, against 4.24% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 21 September 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.00–3.25%.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 12.73x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.

What it means

Ethereum registered an exceptional reaction to the September 2022 Federal Reserve decision. Volatility reached 12.73x its normal quarter-hour level, more than three times the 4.18x median observed across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 28.06x against a typical 7.50x. The move exceeded the stronger response normally seen when the committee changes rates, which carry a 5.50x median volatility ratio compared with 3.49x when rates are left unchanged.

The committee raised its target range by 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25%. Ethereum stood at $1,399.43 at the moment of release and fell 5.75% within fifteen minutes and 1.7% within the hour. Its high-to-low range widened to 7.57% of price in the hour after the announcement, against 4.24% in the prior hour. That outcome surpassed the 5.50x median recorded for prior rate changes, indicating the price movement went beyond what the policy shift itself typically produces.

About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,331.47

Close

1,258.63

24h Change

-72.84 (-5.79%)

24h High

1,408.90

24h Low

1,220.00

24h Volume

1.264M ETH

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee

21st September, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before1368.621400.001368.281397.502.07%2.27%11,045 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951329.67-5.25%7.52%26,361 ETH
 
5 Minutes
Before1366.521400.001366.521397.502.22%2.39%16,097 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951328.13-5.37%7.52%109,117 ETH
 
10 Minutes
Before1373.981400.001362.151397.501.68%2.70%22,258 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951325.82-5.55%7.52%170,839 ETH
 
15 Minutes
Before1374.021400.001362.151397.501.68%2.70%30,385 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951319.00-6.10%7.52%200,384 ETH
 
30 Minutes
Before1350.681400.001350.671397.503.35%3.52%66,932 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951335.77-4.77%7.52%250,621 ETH
 
1 Hour
Before1341.091400.001340.721397.504.04%4.23%82,432 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951375.61-1.73%7.52%390,619 ETH
 
2 Hours
Before1343.061400.001340.241397.503.90%4.27%107,020 ETH
During1399.431408.901302.951323.47-5.74%7.52%478,237 ETH
 
4 Hours
Before1348.181400.001334.011397.503.53%4.71%161,850 ETH
During1399.431408.901241.361253.11-11.68%11.89%623,529 ETH
 
6 Hours
Before1350.931400.001334.011397.503.33%4.71%219,626 ETH
During1399.431408.901220.001245.78-12.33%13.41%748,174 ETH
 
8 Hours
Before1331.471360.761316.121348.191.24%3.28%189,055 ETH
During1348.181408.901241.361253.11-7.59%11.89%785,379 ETH
 
12 Hours
Before1331.471400.001316.121397.504.72%5.99%350,905 ETH
During1399.431408.901220.001258.63-11.19%13.41%913,401 ETH

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