Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 20 September 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,628.65 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.14% higher, and an hour later 0.21% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.97% of its price, against 0.41% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.14x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.89x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.14x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum showed a muted reaction to the Federal Reserve's September 2023 decision. The volatility ratio came in at 2.14x against the event's long-term median of 4.18x, while volume rose only 3.89x against a typical 7.50x. Price moved 0.14 percent higher in the first fifteen minutes and 0.21 percent after an hour, with the hourly range expanding to 0.97 percent from 0.41 percent beforehand.
The outcome aligned with the pattern for rate-hold decisions. Since 2021, holds have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.49x across twenty-eight releases, compared with 5.50x when the target range changed. This release's 2.14x figure fell below even that hold-specific benchmark.
Traders watching future meetings can note that the combination of no rate change and no accompanying surprise produced below-average movement for Ethereum. The record shows holds have consistently generated smaller reactions than changes, without establishing a fixed magnitude for any single upcoming release.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,634.22Close
1,623.8624h Change
-10.36 (-0.64%)24h High
1,640.7924h Low
1,604.5124h Volume
236,104 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
20th September, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1630.32 | 1630.32 | 1628.64 | 1628.65 | -0.10% | 0.10% | 194 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1630.80 | 1625.48 | 1626.36 | -0.14% | 0.33% | 2,043 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1628.75 | 1630.65 | 1628.64 | 1628.65 | -0.01% | 0.12% | 660 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1631.50 | 1625.00 | 1629.18 | 0.03% | 0.40% | 4,430 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1628.60 | 1630.65 | 1628.50 | 1628.65 | 0.00% | 0.13% | 1,275 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1631.50 | 1625.00 | 1630.04 | 0.09% | 0.40% | 5,461 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1628.20 | 1630.65 | 1628.09 | 1628.65 | 0.03% | 0.16% | 1,559 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1631.69 | 1625.00 | 1630.85 | 0.13% | 0.41% | 6,423 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1631.63 | 1632.43 | 1625.81 | 1628.65 | -0.18% | 0.41% | 3,730 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1635.14 | 1625.00 | 1632.89 | 0.26% | 0.62% | 9,148 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1627.52 | 1632.53 | 1625.81 | 1628.65 | 0.07% | 0.41% | 7,715 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1640.79 | 1625.00 | 1632.02 | 0.21% | 0.96% | 19,033 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1629.29 | 1632.53 | 1625.81 | 1628.65 | -0.04% | 0.41% | 15,413 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1640.79 | 1604.51 | 1616.16 | -0.77% | 2.21% | 49,990 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1631.16 | 1634.39 | 1624.63 | 1628.65 | -0.15% | 0.60% | 29,509 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1640.79 | 1604.51 | 1625.93 | -0.17% | 2.21% | 63,491 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1629.70 | 1634.39 | 1620.68 | 1628.65 | -0.06% | 0.84% | 53,668 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1640.79 | 1604.51 | 1622.26 | -0.39% | 2.21% | 72,126 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1634.22 | 1638.51 | 1618.48 | 1631.16 | -0.19% | 1.22% | 96,157 ETH |
| During | 1631.16 | 1640.79 | 1604.51 | 1625.93 | -0.32% | 2.21% | 93,000 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1634.22 | 1638.51 | 1618.48 | 1628.65 | -0.34% | 1.22% | 125,666 ETH |
| During | 1628.65 | 1640.79 | 1604.51 | 1623.86 | -0.29% | 2.21% | 110,438 ETH |
