Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 November 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,807.51 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.5% higher, and an hour later 0.7% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.6% of its price, against 0.79% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.23x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.27x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.23x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold its target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent coincided with limited movement in Ethereum. The price stood at $1,807.51 at the 2:00 PM release, then advanced 0.5 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.7 percent within an hour, while the hourly high-to-low range reached 1.6 percent against 0.79 percent beforehand.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.23 times normal activity in the quarter hour of the release, below the 4.18 times median for all 46 Fed Interest Rate events since 2021 and below the 3.49 times median for the 28 prior holds. Volume expanded by a factor of 2.27 against a typical 7.50 times. The outcome registered as muted even against the record for unchanged policy.
Decisions that altered rates have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.50 times. This release, issued without projections or a dot plot, therefore delivered a smaller reaction than its circumstances would normally suggest. A trader reviewing the next comparable statement may expect that an unchanged target range delivered in this format tends to generate below-average volatility relative to the event's full history.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,800.03Close
1,834.7524h Change
34.72 (1.89%)24h High
1,875.0024h Low
1,783.1924h Volume
526,929 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st November, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1805.24 | 1808.00 | 1805.24 | 1807.52 | 0.13% | 0.15% | 219 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1809.14 | 1807.01 | 1809.00 | 0.08% | 0.12% | 528 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1806.05 | 1808.00 | 1802.82 | 1807.52 | 0.08% | 0.29% | 1,721 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1809.56 | 1803.87 | 1807.25 | -0.01% | 0.31% | 2,960 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1802.42 | 1808.95 | 1802.41 | 1807.52 | 0.28% | 0.36% | 3,838 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1811.61 | 1803.87 | 1811.15 | 0.20% | 0.43% | 4,347 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1800.97 | 1808.95 | 1799.89 | 1807.52 | 0.36% | 0.50% | 4,805 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1817.77 | 1803.87 | 1816.57 | 0.50% | 0.76% | 8,523 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1797.68 | 1808.95 | 1794.63 | 1807.52 | 0.54% | 0.79% | 8,136 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1821.02 | 1803.87 | 1818.71 | 0.62% | 0.94% | 17,875 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1796.98 | 1808.95 | 1794.63 | 1807.52 | 0.58% | 0.79% | 12,373 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1832.72 | 1803.87 | 1820.20 | 0.70% | 1.57% | 42,404 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1792.29 | 1808.95 | 1791.90 | 1807.52 | 0.84% | 0.94% | 26,538 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1850.59 | 1803.87 | 1835.90 | 1.55% | 2.52% | 97,627 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1801.93 | 1808.95 | 1783.19 | 1807.52 | 0.31% | 1.42% | 72,455 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1857.66 | 1803.87 | 1843.42 | 1.95% | 2.90% | 181,655 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1799.79 | 1827.58 | 1783.19 | 1807.52 | 0.43% | 2.43% | 138,398 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1857.66 | 1803.87 | 1846.99 | 2.14% | 2.90% | 216,516 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1800.03 | 1827.58 | 1792.46 | 1801.92 | 0.10% | 1.92% | 124,334 ETH |
| During | 1801.93 | 1857.66 | 1783.19 | 1843.42 | 2.25% | 4.01% | 254,111 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1800.03 | 1827.58 | 1783.19 | 1807.52 | 0.41% | 2.43% | 196,789 ETH |
| During | 1807.51 | 1875.00 | 1803.87 | 1834.75 | 1.48% | 3.79% | 330,140 ETH |
