Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 17 September 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.00–4.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $115,504.49 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.24% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.4% of its price, against 0.68% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.24x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.35x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.24x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision. Its volatility ratio reached 4.24x in the quarter hour of the release, matching the 4.29x median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021. The price remained unchanged fifteen minutes after the 2:00 PM statement and stood 0.24 percent lower after one hour, while the high-to-low range expanded to 1.4 percent from 0.68 percent beforehand. Volume rose to 10.35x, exceeding the typical 5.81x multiple for the event.
The release included a 25 basis point cut that set the target range at 4.00 to 4.25 percent. Decisions that alter the rate have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.37x since 2021, compared with 3.31x when rates stayed unchanged. This instance produced 4.24x, below the level associated with prior rate moves.
Traders reviewing the record may note that even a rate change accompanied by projections can generate contained price action when the adjustment aligns with expectations already priced in. The event's overall median volatility ratio of 4.29x provides context for assessing whether subsequent announcements follow the same pattern or deviate from it.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
117,108.31Close
117,273.3624h Change
165.05 (0.14%)24h High
117,896.0024h Low
114,720.8124h Volume
17,974 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
17th September, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 116019.94 | 116144.00 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.45% | 0.55% | 127 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 115500.00 | 116086.82 | 0.50% | 0.72% | 343 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115997.87 | 116144.00 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.43% | 0.55% | 203 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 115500.00 | 116183.99 | 0.58% | 0.72% | 892 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115974.00 | 116144.00 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.41% | 0.55% | 251 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 115500.00 | 115972.01 | 0.40% | 0.72% | 1,135 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 116028.00 | 116144.00 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.45% | 0.55% | 333 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 115430.24 | 115480.00 | -0.02% | 0.78% | 1,315 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115680.61 | 116288.27 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.15% | 0.68% | 518 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 114966.65 | 115961.73 | 0.39% | 1.17% | 2,149 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 115640.76 | 116288.27 | 115500.00 | 115504.48 | -0.12% | 0.68% | 697 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 114720.81 | 115226.93 | -0.24% | 1.39% | 3,427 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115875.33 | 116288.27 | 115386.21 | 115504.48 | -0.32% | 0.78% | 1,356 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 114720.81 | 115652.02 | 0.13% | 1.39% | 4,382 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 116107.18 | 116288.27 | 115386.21 | 115504.48 | -0.52% | 0.78% | 3,153 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116333.33 | 114720.81 | 116038.39 | 0.46% | 1.39% | 5,174 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 116258.12 | 116516.93 | 115386.21 | 115504.48 | -0.65% | 0.97% | 4,205 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 116990.68 | 114720.81 | 116447.59 | 0.81% | 1.94% | 6,752 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117108.31 | 117286.73 | 115905.88 | 116107.19 | -0.86% | 1.18% | 4,035 BTC |
| During | 116107.18 | 116333.33 | 114720.81 | 116038.39 | -0.06% | 1.39% | 8,327 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117108.31 | 117286.73 | 115386.21 | 115504.48 | -1.39% | 1.62% | 7,188 BTC |
| During | 115504.49 | 117896.00 | 114720.81 | 117273.36 | 1.51% | 2.69% | 10,786 BTC |
