Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 October 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75–4.00%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $111,883.50 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.6% lower, and an hour later 0.96% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.53% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.08x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.51x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 3.08x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the 29 October 2025 Federal Reserve rate decision, with a volatility ratio of 3.08x against the 4.29x median recorded across 46 releases since 2021. The move also fell below the 5.37x median volatility seen in the 18 prior decisions that altered the target range.
The FOMC cut its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. Even so, Bitcoin's price range in the hour after the statement reached only 2.53% of its pre-release level of $111,883.50, compared with 0.82% in the preceding hour. Volume expanded 4.51x against a typical 5.81x for the event.
Rate-changing decisions have historically produced larger volatility spikes than holds. This instance remained closer to the 3.31x median observed when the committee left policy unchanged. The subdued response indicates that the size of the surprise, rather than the mere fact of a change, shaped the market's immediate behavior.
Traders reviewing future statements may observe that policy shifts announced without accompanying projections or dot plots can coincide with contained price action, even when the rate itself moves.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
113,039.09Close
110,248.2924h Change
-2790.80 (-2.53%)24h High
113,643.7324h Low
107,925.0624h Volume
25,142 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th October, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 111757.99 | 111883.50 | 111741.54 | 111883.49 | 0.11% | 0.13% | 17 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 111921.54 | 111480.00 | 111907.55 | 0.02% | 0.39% | 228 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 111800.00 | 111883.50 | 111720.93 | 111883.49 | 0.07% | 0.15% | 76 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 111480.00 | 111624.42 | -0.23% | 0.49% | 525 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 111862.67 | 111922.44 | 111720.93 | 111883.49 | 0.02% | 0.18% | 133 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 111112.36 | 111524.76 | -0.32% | 0.82% | 687 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 111689.30 | 111922.44 | 111626.60 | 111883.49 | 0.17% | 0.26% | 188 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 111112.36 | 111214.00 | -0.60% | 0.82% | 753 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 111195.86 | 111922.44 | 111153.76 | 111883.49 | 0.61% | 0.69% | 406 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 111112.36 | 111433.33 | -0.40% | 0.82% | 940 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 111106.35 | 111922.44 | 111002.23 | 111883.49 | 0.69% | 0.82% | 811 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 109200.00 | 110806.38 | -0.97% | 2.53% | 4,372 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 111509.74 | 111922.44 | 110960.00 | 111883.49 | 0.33% | 0.86% | 2,200 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 109200.00 | 110640.00 | -1.12% | 2.53% | 5,542 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 112873.08 | 112916.00 | 110960.00 | 111883.49 | -0.88% | 1.73% | 5,307 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 109200.00 | 111617.26 | -0.24% | 2.53% | 6,676 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 113132.35 | 113643.73 | 110960.00 | 111883.49 | -1.12% | 2.36% | 6,806 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 109200.00 | 110021.29 | -1.69% | 2.53% | 8,190 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 113039.09 | 113643.73 | 112705.00 | 112873.07 | -0.15% | 0.83% | 4,554 BTC |
| During | 112873.08 | 112916.00 | 109200.00 | 111617.26 | -1.13% | 3.29% | 11,983 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 113039.09 | 113643.73 | 110960.00 | 111883.49 | -1.03% | 2.36% | 9,861 BTC |
| During | 111883.50 | 112030.23 | 107925.06 | 110248.29 | -1.48% | 3.66% | 15,281 BTC |
