Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 March 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $71,595.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.4% higher, and an hour later 0.7% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.47% of its price, against 0.77% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.92x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.72x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.92x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed a muted reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The price stood at $71,595.21 at the 2:00 PM release. It rose 0.4 percent in the first fifteen minutes before finishing the hour 0.7 percent lower. The high-to-low range reached 1.47 percent of the price after the announcement compared with 0.77 percent beforehand. Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 1.92x against the 4.29x median for all forty-six Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021 and a volume ratio of 2.72x against the typical 5.81x.
This outcome sits below the 3.31x median volatility ratio that Clometrix measured across the twenty-eight prior decisions that left the rate unchanged. Rate changes since 2021 produced a higher median of 5.37x. The smaller move therefore fell short of the response usually associated with a hold.
Traders watching the next Fed Interest Rate release can note that decisions without a rate change have tended to generate lower volatility than those that altered the target. The record supplies no expectation for any single future release, yet it shows that the magnitude of the policy adjustment itself has aligned with larger price ranges in Bitcoin.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
73,950.01Close
70,826.5424h Change
-3123.47 (-4.41%)24h High
74,281.3324h Low
70,500.0024h Volume
23,584 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th March, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 71638.00 | 71638.00 | 71595.21 | 71595.21 | -0.06% | 0.06% | 25 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 71937.99 | 71595.21 | 71793.03 | 0.28% | 0.48% | 89 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 71638.27 | 71677.88 | 71573.58 | 71595.21 | -0.06% | 0.15% | 87 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 71972.32 | 71595.21 | 71928.07 | 0.46% | 0.52% | 215 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 71692.53 | 71692.53 | 71563.47 | 71595.21 | -0.14% | 0.18% | 144 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 71595.21 | 71840.02 | 0.34% | 0.56% | 364 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 71590.63 | 71750.00 | 71563.47 | 71595.21 | 0.01% | 0.26% | 212 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 71595.21 | 71882.21 | 0.40% | 0.56% | 496 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 71479.91 | 71750.00 | 71348.23 | 71595.21 | 0.16% | 0.56% | 571 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 71563.99 | 71684.60 | 0.12% | 0.61% | 713 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 71314.07 | 71750.00 | 71199.87 | 71595.21 | 0.39% | 0.77% | 1,026 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 70947.78 | 71096.74 | -0.70% | 1.46% | 1,475 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 71467.82 | 71750.00 | 71037.34 | 71595.21 | 0.18% | 0.99% | 1,993 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 70933.85 | 71072.38 | -0.74% | 1.48% | 2,343 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 72133.48 | 72222.45 | 70857.21 | 71595.21 | -0.75% | 1.89% | 6,939 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 70500.00 | 71263.67 | -0.47% | 2.08% | 3,862 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 72952.85 | 72981.79 | 70857.21 | 71595.21 | -1.90% | 2.91% | 10,366 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 70500.00 | 71246.54 | -0.49% | 2.08% | 5,074 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 73950.01 | 74281.33 | 71980.00 | 72133.49 | -2.52% | 3.10% | 8,024 BTC |
| During | 72133.48 | 72222.45 | 70500.00 | 71263.67 | -1.22% | 2.38% | 10,801 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 73950.01 | 74281.33 | 70857.21 | 71595.21 | -3.29% | 4.61% | 14,963 BTC |
| During | 71595.21 | 72000.50 | 70500.00 | 70826.54 | -1.09% | 2.08% | 8,621 BTC |
