Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 November 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.15x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.83x, against a typical 5.81x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $34,510.28 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.08% higher, and an hour later 0.2% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.88% of its price, against 0.53% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.15x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold rates steady at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. Its volatility ratio reached just 1.15 times normal levels, well below the 4.29 times median observed across prior Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded only 1.83 times, against a typical 5.81 times expansion.
The price action reflected this subdued response. Bitcoin stood at $34,510.28 at the 2:00 PM release and advanced 0.08 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.2 percent after one hour. The high to low range measured 0.88 percent of price in the following hour, compared with 0.53 percent beforehand.
Fed decisions that leave rates unchanged have historically produced smaller Bitcoin moves than those that adjust policy, with a median volatility ratio of 3.31 times across twenty eight such events. This release fell short even of that benchmark. Traders may note that when the committee elects to hold, the market response can remain muted regardless of the surrounding calendar.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
34,348.40Close
35,196.7024h Change
848.30 (2.41%)24h High
35,984.9924h Low
34,097.3924h Volume
61,263 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st November, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 34492.55 | 34520.00 | 34490.59 | 34510.28 | 0.05% | 0.09% | 39 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34540.00 | 34503.03 | 34539.17 | 0.08% | 0.11% | 71 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 34490.87 | 34520.00 | 34415.21 | 34510.28 | 0.06% | 0.30% | 480 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34550.00 | 34439.89 | 34522.92 | 0.04% | 0.32% | 329 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 34499.30 | 34534.46 | 34415.21 | 34510.28 | 0.03% | 0.35% | 683 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34550.00 | 34439.89 | 34517.70 | 0.02% | 0.32% | 517 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 34517.09 | 34534.46 | 34415.21 | 34510.28 | -0.02% | 0.35% | 821 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34559.56 | 34439.89 | 34537.19 | 0.08% | 0.35% | 777 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 34394.38 | 34534.46 | 34350.00 | 34510.28 | 0.34% | 0.53% | 1,228 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34614.41 | 34439.89 | 34598.33 | 0.25% | 0.50% | 1,307 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 34458.62 | 34534.46 | 34350.00 | 34510.28 | 0.15% | 0.53% | 1,970 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34738.07 | 34432.76 | 34578.50 | 0.20% | 0.88% | 3,128 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 34291.94 | 34543.13 | 34280.02 | 34510.28 | 0.63% | 0.76% | 4,097 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 34738.07 | 34432.76 | 34557.67 | 0.14% | 0.88% | 5,523 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 34595.54 | 34660.00 | 34097.39 | 34510.28 | -0.25% | 1.62% | 11,443 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 35582.00 | 34432.76 | 35380.93 | 2.46% | 3.23% | 16,089 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 34424.07 | 35200.00 | 34097.39 | 34510.28 | 0.25% | 3.13% | 23,084 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 35582.00 | 34432.76 | 35421.43 | 2.57% | 3.23% | 20,074 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 34348.40 | 35200.00 | 34316.00 | 34595.54 | 0.71% | 2.51% | 16,654 BTC |
| During | 34595.54 | 35582.00 | 34097.39 | 35380.93 | 2.22% | 4.17% | 27,531 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 34348.40 | 35200.00 | 34097.39 | 34510.28 | 0.47% | 3.13% | 28,097 BTC |
| During | 34510.28 | 35984.99 | 34432.76 | 35196.70 | 1.95% | 4.31% | 33,167 BTC |
