Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 11.58x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 17.65x, against a typical 7.50x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,560.48 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.37% higher, and an hour later 0.21% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 5.98% of its price, against 1.47% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 2 November 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.75–4.00%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 11.58x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Exceptional Move on Rate Adjustment
Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that lifted the target range by 75 basis points. Volatility reached 11.58 times the baseline quarter-hour level, more than double the 4.18 times median across 46 releases since 2021. Volume expanded 17.65 times against the typical 7.50 times.
It rose 2.37 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.21 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-to-low range reached 5.98 percent of price compared with 1.47 percent beforehand.
Rate-changing decisions have produced a 5.50 times median volatility ratio since 2021, against 3.49 times when rates were held. This release exceeded even that benchmark for adjustments. The departure from the established pattern indicates that additional factors coincided with the policy shift to enlarge the response. Traders reviewing future instances of the same event can observe that outcomes have at times exceeded the median recorded for comparable rate changes without any implication for the scale of the next reaction.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,585.93Close
1,551.7624h Change
-34.17 (-2.20%)24h High
1,621.6824h Low
1,502.3224h Volume
1.006M ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
2nd November, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1559.31 | 1563.98 | 1554.58 | 1560.48 | 0.07% | 0.60% | 2,459 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1580.00 | 1528.39 | 1570.01 | 0.61% | 3.27% | 18,019 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1561.77 | 1563.98 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | -0.08% | 0.93% | 14,102 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1593.80 | 1528.39 | 1586.77 | 1.66% | 4.10% | 47,217 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1566.26 | 1568.00 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | -0.37% | 1.19% | 16,305 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1608.00 | 1528.39 | 1595.18 | 2.18% | 4.95% | 73,876 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1568.32 | 1569.99 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | -0.50% | 1.31% | 18,390 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1608.00 | 1528.39 | 1597.52 | 2.32% | 4.95% | 87,977 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1568.50 | 1571.49 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | -0.51% | 1.41% | 23,387 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1528.39 | 1614.53 | 3.35% | 5.75% | 121,561 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1570.95 | 1572.32 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | -0.67% | 1.46% | 37,015 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1528.39 | 1563.69 | 0.21% | 5.75% | 265,704 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1558.51 | 1576.06 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | 0.13% | 1.69% | 60,527 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1524.00 | 1535.92 | -1.60% | 6.02% | 380,003 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1553.24 | 1576.06 | 1549.40 | 1560.48 | 0.46% | 1.69% | 96,779 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1502.32 | 1514.30 | -3.05% | 7.36% | 474,896 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1555.95 | 1576.06 | 1546.02 | 1560.48 | 0.29% | 1.91% | 145,663 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1502.32 | 1518.34 | -2.78% | 7.36% | 514,082 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1585.93 | 1588.78 | 1536.25 | 1553.24 | -2.10% | 3.31% | 250,095 ETH |
| During | 1553.24 | 1621.68 | 1502.32 | 1514.30 | -2.57% | 7.36% | 571,675 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1585.93 | 1588.78 | 1536.25 | 1560.48 | -1.63% | 3.31% | 346,874 ETH |
| During | 1560.48 | 1621.68 | 1502.32 | 1551.76 | -0.56% | 7.36% | 658,816 ETH |
