Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.39x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 11.72x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $75,770.45 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.18% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.97% of its price, against 0.77% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 16 September 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75–4.00%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 7.39x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed a strong reaction to the September 2026 Federal Reserve rate decision, with volatility reaching 7.39x and volume 11.72x in the quarter hour of the release. These readings exceed the medians recorded for all 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021, which stand at 4.29x for volatility and 5.81x for volume. The outcome aligned with the broader pattern that rate changes have produced larger moves than holds, yet still surpassed the 5.37x median volatility seen across the 18 prior changes.
Price action remained contained immediately after the announcement. Bitcoin sat at $75,770.45 at 2:00 PM EDT, stayed flat through the first fifteen minutes, then traded 0.18 percent lower by the end of the hour. Its high-low range widened to 1.97 percent in that hour from 0.77 percent beforehand. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent.
Traders can note that releases coinciding with an actual policy shift have historically lifted Bitcoin's median volatility ratio above the overall 4.29x benchmark, and this instance extended that gap further. The record supplies no basis for expecting any specific magnitude on the next decision, only that the presence or absence of a rate move has mattered more than the calendar date alone.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
75,962.01Close
76,333.8824h Change
371.87 (0.49%)24h High
76,774.0824h Low
75,064.8224h Volume
15,041 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
16th September, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 75806.00 | 75874.01 | 75680.00 | 75768.01 | -0.05% | 0.26% | 62 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 75978.01 | 75429.24 | 75576.59 | -0.26% | 0.72% | 255 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75503.66 | 75937.45 | 75503.66 | 75768.01 | 0.35% | 0.57% | 131 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 75978.01 | 75298.43 | 75842.52 | 0.10% | 0.89% | 549 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75362.19 | 75937.45 | 75362.19 | 75768.01 | 0.54% | 0.76% | 183 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75298.43 | 76224.00 | 0.60% | 1.65% | 1,178 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75460.66 | 75937.45 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | 0.41% | 0.77% | 244 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75298.43 | 75798.01 | 0.04% | 1.65% | 1,449 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75715.35 | 75937.45 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | 0.07% | 0.77% | 453 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75298.43 | 76015.09 | 0.32% | 1.65% | 1,906 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 75768.00 | 75937.45 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | 0.00% | 0.77% | 639 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75064.82 | 75632.00 | -0.18% | 1.95% | 3,097 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75788.41 | 75937.45 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | -0.03% | 0.77% | 1,006 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75064.82 | 76080.00 | 0.41% | 1.95% | 4,055 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75646.01 | 75950.00 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | 0.16% | 0.79% | 2,273 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75064.82 | 75976.00 | 0.27% | 1.95% | 4,887 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 76250.00 | 76300.00 | 75353.07 | 75768.01 | -0.64% | 1.24% | 3,578 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76560.76 | 75064.82 | 76206.01 | 0.57% | 1.95% | 5,897 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75962.01 | 76304.01 | 75350.00 | 75646.01 | -0.42% | 1.25% | 4,411 BTC |
| During | 75646.01 | 76560.76 | 75064.82 | 75976.00 | 0.43% | 1.95% | 7,160 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75962.01 | 76304.01 | 75350.00 | 75768.01 | -0.26% | 1.25% | 6,684 BTC |
| During | 75770.45 | 76774.08 | 75064.82 | 76333.88 | 0.74% | 2.23% | 8,357 BTC |
