Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 May 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $57,424.64 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.76% higher, and an hour later 2.59% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.72% of its price, against 1.87% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.72x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.13x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.72x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The price stood at $57,424.64 at the 2:00 PM release, then advanced 0.76 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.59 percent within one hour. Its high-to-low range expanded to 3.72 percent of price after the announcement from 1.87 percent before it. Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.72x against the 4.29x median for Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, together with a volume ratio of 4.13x against the typical 5.81x.
Hold decisions have produced lower median volatility than changes since 2021, at 3.31x across twenty-eight instances versus 5.37x across eighteen changes. This release's 2.72x volatility ratio fell below even the hold median, confirming the subdued character of the move. The overall record across forty-six releases shows a 4.29x median volatility ratio for Bitcoin. Traders may observe that unchanged rates have coincided with smaller price ranges in Bitcoin than the broader event history would indicate.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
60,049.99Close
57,484.5724h Change
-2565.42 (-4.46%)24h High
60,113.2424h Low
56,552.8224h Volume
85,868 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st May, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 57526.00 | 57531.10 | 57419.29 | 57424.65 | -0.18% | 0.19% | 53 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 57594.34 | 57331.10 | 57534.00 | 0.19% | 0.46% | 182 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 57594.34 | 57679.18 | 57419.29 | 57424.65 | -0.30% | 0.45% | 212 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 58103.77 | 57331.10 | 58063.98 | 1.10% | 1.33% | 845 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 57324.08 | 57700.86 | 57300.00 | 57424.65 | 0.18% | 0.69% | 586 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 58181.90 | 57331.10 | 58032.00 | 1.05% | 1.46% | 1,857 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 57198.91 | 57700.86 | 57162.01 | 57424.65 | 0.39% | 0.93% | 716 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 58181.90 | 57331.10 | 57861.35 | 0.75% | 1.46% | 2,342 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 57184.74 | 57700.86 | 57151.10 | 57424.65 | 0.42% | 0.95% | 1,116 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 58181.90 | 57331.10 | 58003.99 | 1.00% | 1.46% | 3,246 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 57044.00 | 57700.86 | 56625.09 | 57424.65 | 0.66% | 1.86% | 2,104 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 59468.00 | 57331.10 | 58913.99 | 2.53% | 3.59% | 8,929 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 56886.00 | 57700.86 | 56625.09 | 57424.65 | 0.94% | 1.86% | 4,385 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 59468.00 | 56897.27 | 56954.47 | -0.83% | 4.32% | 16,123 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57301.29 | 57700.86 | 56625.09 | 57424.65 | 0.21% | 1.86% | 10,238 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 59468.00 | 56760.02 | 57909.03 | 0.84% | 4.55% | 20,116 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57898.46 | 58275.87 | 56625.09 | 57424.65 | -0.83% | 2.83% | 16,072 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 59468.00 | 56760.02 | 58364.97 | 1.61% | 4.55% | 24,220 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60049.99 | 60113.24 | 56552.82 | 57301.29 | -4.80% | 5.92% | 38,449 BTC |
| During | 57301.29 | 59468.00 | 56625.09 | 57909.03 | 1.05% | 4.78% | 30,353 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60049.99 | 60113.24 | 56552.82 | 57424.65 | -4.57% | 5.92% | 48,687 BTC |
| During | 57424.64 | 59468.00 | 56760.02 | 57484.57 | 0.10% | 4.55% | 37,181 BTC |
