Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 September 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.75–5.00%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,309.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.39% higher, and an hour later 1.14% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.71% of its price, against 1.2% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.29x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.71x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.29x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Its volatility ratio reached 4.29 times normal quarter-hour movement, almost identical to the 4.18 times median recorded across 46 releases since 2021. The price rose 0.39 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.14 percent after an hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 2.71 percent from 1.2 percent before the announcement.
The 50 basis point cut to the 4.75-5.00 percent target range placed this release among those that change policy rather than hold rates steady. Such changes have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.50 times in Ethereum since 2021. The actual 4.29 times outcome therefore fell below the level associated with rate moves. Volume expanded sharply to 13.71 times normal, above the 7.50 times typical for the event.
Traders reviewing the record can observe that policy changes have coincided with larger moves than holds, yet this instance remained contained relative to that pattern. The data supply no basis for assuming the next decision will follow the same subdued profile.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,321.13Close
2,411.8024h Change
90.67 (3.76%)24h High
2,422.7924h Low
2,277.3424h Volume
339,886 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th September, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2307.82 | 2310.37 | 2307.82 | 2309.21 | 0.06% | 0.11% | 186 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2335.38 | 2301.93 | 2326.60 | 0.75% | 1.43% | 10,620 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2311.60 | 2311.63 | 2305.21 | 2309.21 | -0.10% | 0.28% | 1,340 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2342.49 | 2301.93 | 2316.72 | 0.32% | 1.73% | 22,957 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2307.32 | 2318.40 | 2305.21 | 2309.21 | 0.08% | 0.57% | 3,688 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2342.49 | 2301.93 | 2322.68 | 0.58% | 1.73% | 28,235 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2307.23 | 2318.40 | 2305.21 | 2309.21 | 0.09% | 0.57% | 4,811 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2342.49 | 2301.93 | 2318.32 | 0.39% | 1.73% | 31,658 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2300.07 | 2318.40 | 2299.30 | 2309.21 | 0.40% | 0.82% | 7,037 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2342.49 | 2301.93 | 2333.31 | 1.03% | 1.73% | 41,647 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2304.41 | 2318.40 | 2290.63 | 2309.21 | 0.21% | 1.20% | 11,982 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2364.42 | 2301.93 | 2335.60 | 1.13% | 2.64% | 67,197 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2296.00 | 2318.40 | 2288.25 | 2309.21 | 0.57% | 1.30% | 19,883 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2364.42 | 2301.93 | 2315.19 | 0.26% | 2.64% | 88,096 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2295.14 | 2318.40 | 2288.00 | 2309.21 | 0.61% | 1.31% | 41,256 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2364.42 | 2290.00 | 2331.46 | 0.95% | 3.15% | 109,703 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2300.60 | 2318.40 | 2288.00 | 2309.21 | 0.37% | 1.31% | 59,138 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2376.14 | 2290.00 | 2374.75 | 2.76% | 3.63% | 132,172 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2321.13 | 2335.00 | 2277.34 | 2295.15 | -1.13% | 2.47% | 71,885 ETH |
| During | 2295.14 | 2364.42 | 2288.00 | 2331.46 | 1.56% | 3.23% | 150,958 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2321.13 | 2335.00 | 2277.34 | 2309.21 | -0.52% | 2.47% | 113,141 ETH |
| During | 2309.21 | 2422.79 | 2290.00 | 2411.80 | 4.25% | 5.48% | 226,745 ETH |
