Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 7 November 2024 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.50–4.75%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $76,604.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.17% lower, and an hour later 0.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.92% of its price, against 1.37% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.24x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.34x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 2.24x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a muted response to the Federal Open Market Committee's 25 basis point cut. The price stood at $76,604 at the 2:00 PM release, then fell 0.17 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.1 percent within the hour. Its hourly range narrowed to 0.92 percent from 1.37 percent beforehand.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.24x against the 4.29x median for all Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume rose only 3.34x, well below the 5.81x typical level. Rate changes have normally produced larger moves, with a 5.37x median volatility ratio across eighteen prior decisions. This instance fell short of that benchmark despite the policy shift.
The broader record shows that Bitcoin's median volatility ratio across forty six Fed Interest Rate announcements stands at 4.29x. The subdued outcome here illustrates that even a rate adjustment can coincide with limited price action when other conditions align.
Traders preparing for the next scheduled release of this event may note that the magnitude of the policy move alone does not guarantee elevated volatility in Bitcoin.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
74,768.28Close
75,876.0024h Change
1107.72 (1.46%)24h High
76,849.9924h Low
74,512.1924h Volume
40,085 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
7th November, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 76557.99 | 76674.00 | 76557.99 | 76604.01 | 0.06% | 0.15% | 40 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 76340.00 | 76340.00 | -0.35% | 0.36% | 130 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76544.76 | 76718.99 | 76514.00 | 76604.01 | 0.08% | 0.27% | 230 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 76188.00 | 76203.95 | -0.52% | 0.55% | 461 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76590.05 | 76718.99 | 76514.00 | 76604.01 | 0.02% | 0.27% | 441 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 76140.00 | 76394.00 | -0.27% | 0.62% | 752 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76494.01 | 76718.99 | 76491.48 | 76604.01 | 0.14% | 0.30% | 658 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 76140.00 | 76477.36 | -0.17% | 0.62% | 967 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76387.98 | 76718.99 | 76286.01 | 76604.01 | 0.28% | 0.56% | 2,371 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 75906.56 | 76272.72 | -0.43% | 0.92% | 1,764 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 76257.90 | 76718.99 | 75671.09 | 76604.01 | 0.45% | 1.37% | 4,375 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76612.00 | 75906.56 | 76530.39 | -0.10% | 0.92% | 3,142 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75893.98 | 76718.99 | 75671.09 | 76604.01 | 0.93% | 1.37% | 7,553 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76849.99 | 75906.56 | 76431.48 | -0.23% | 1.23% | 6,234 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 74822.00 | 76718.99 | 74675.05 | 76604.01 | 2.33% | 2.66% | 14,458 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76849.99 | 75494.00 | 75872.00 | -0.96% | 1.76% | 8,973 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 74991.88 | 76718.99 | 74512.19 | 76604.01 | 2.10% | 2.88% | 17,645 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76849.99 | 75494.00 | 76005.25 | -0.79% | 1.76% | 11,757 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 74768.28 | 75150.11 | 74512.19 | 74822.00 | 0.07% | 0.85% | 8,673 BTC |
| During | 74822.00 | 76849.99 | 74675.05 | 75872.00 | 1.38% | 2.83% | 23,431 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 74768.28 | 76718.99 | 74512.19 | 76604.01 | 2.40% | 2.88% | 23,130 BTC |
| During | 76604.00 | 76849.99 | 75494.00 | 75876.00 | -0.96% | 1.76% | 16,955 BTC |
