Measured by Clometrix
Aave's volatility ratio was 2.63x, against 1.37x for a typical Durable Orders release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.47x, against a typical 1.48x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Aave moved
Aave was at $62.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.59% lower, and an hour later 0.42% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.87% of its price, against 1.03% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 27 September 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. Durable Goods Orders came in at -1.4% for August 2023, against -3.5% in July 2023. Durable goods orders are still falling, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Durable Orders releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Aave more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.47x across 20, against 1.26x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.63x compares with 1.26x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Durable Orders releases since 2021, Aave's median volatility ratio is 1.37x.
How it compares
Across 69 Durable Orders releases since 2021, Aave's usual price swing is 1.37x. This one was 1.93 times the usual.
Thin line: Durable Orders's usual, 1.37x. Thick line: this release, 2.63x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 62.42 | 62.38 | 62.42 | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 41 AAVE |
| 5 minutes | 62.44 | 62.38 | 62.41 | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 160 AAVE |
| 10 minutes | 62.47 | 62.17 | 62.19 | -0.34% | 0.48% | 0.27% | 744 AAVE |
| 15 minutes | 62.47 | 62.01 | 62.03 | -0.60% | 0.74% | 0.27% | 1,627 AAVE |
| 30 minutes | 62.47 | 61.98 | 62.15 | -0.40% | 0.78% | 0.89% | 2,796 AAVE |
| 1 hour | 62.52 | 61.98 | 62.14 | -0.42% | 0.86% | 1.02% | 4,617 AAVE |
| 2 hours | 62.52 | 60.96 | 61.14 | -2.06% | 2.50% | 1.88% | 9,429 AAVE |
| 4 hours | 62.52 | 60.44 | 60.78 | -2.67% | 3.33% | 3.56% | 13,871 AAVE |
| 6 hours | 62.52 | 59.87 | 60.23 | -3.60% | 4.24% | 3.64% | 17,478 AAVE |
| 8 hours | 62.89 | 60.44 | 60.78 | 0.16% | 3.90% | 1.24% | 42,437 AAVE |
| 12 hours | 62.52 | 59.87 | 60.93 | -2.41% | 4.24% | 3.64% | 27,275 AAVE |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Durable Orders | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.23x | 1.44x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 2.65x | 1.38x | Strong |
| XRP | 1.32x | 1.13x | Quiet |
| BNB | 2.22x | 1.28x | Strong |
| Solana | 1.80x | 1.32x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 2.27x | 1.49x | Strong |
| TRON | 0.81x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.57x | 1.33x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.59x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Sui | 1.63x | 1.36x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.45x | 1.31x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.49x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.98x | 1.44x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.71x | 1.34x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 1.98x | 1.30x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.93x | 1.26x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 0.99x | 1.27x | Quiet |
| Aave | 2.63x | 1.37x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.29x | - |
| Aptos | 2.48x | 1.34x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.97x | 1.11x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.76x | 1.29x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 0.98x | 1.34x | Quiet |
What is Durable Goods Orders?
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Durable Goods Orders report every month. Durable goods orders reflect new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. The change in the total value of new orders is measured and shared with the public in two releases per month: the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.Questions about this page
Is 2.63x a lot?
For a Durable Orders release it is strong: the usual is 1.37x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Durable Orders do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Aave moved in after past Durable Orders releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.