Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 August 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for July 2024, against 0.0% in June 2024. Consumer prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $61,699.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.76% lower, and an hour later 1.45% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.94% of its price, against 1.18% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.27x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.33x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.27x compares with 3.99x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary response to the July CPI release. Its volatility ratio of 4.27x matched the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 10.33x against the typical 6.92x. The move occurred alongside core CPI prints and 34 days before the next Federal Reserve decision.
Releases inside the two-week pre-Fed window have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 4.75x, while those outside it average 3.99x. Bitcoin traded at $61,699.99 at release, fell 0.76 percent in fifteen minutes and 1.45 percent after one hour, and posted a 1.94 percent high-low range.
The record shows that proximity to policy meetings has coincided with larger Bitcoin moves on CPI days. A trader reviewing the next release may therefore weigh the remaining interval to the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting when assessing potential volatility.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
60,615.02Close
58,898.0024h Change
-1717.02 (-2.92%)24h High
61,800.0024h Low
58,433.1824h Volume
28,485 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
14th August, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 61473.99 | 61776.30 | 61372.02 | 61688.00 | 0.35% | 0.65% | 189 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60946.75 | 61173.72 | -0.86% | 1.38% | 402 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61471.99 | 61776.30 | 61372.02 | 61688.00 | 0.35% | 0.65% | 270 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60929.91 | 61289.51 | -0.67% | 1.41% | 933 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61320.00 | 61776.30 | 61319.99 | 61688.00 | 0.60% | 0.74% | 383 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60929.91 | 61290.00 | -0.67% | 1.41% | 1,315 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61221.93 | 61776.30 | 61146.00 | 61688.00 | 0.76% | 1.02% | 476 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60929.91 | 61232.52 | -0.76% | 1.41% | 1,691 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61296.88 | 61776.30 | 61146.00 | 61688.00 | 0.63% | 1.02% | 736 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60846.53 | 61064.53 | -1.04% | 1.54% | 2,340 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 61084.29 | 61776.30 | 61050.00 | 61688.00 | 0.98% | 1.18% | 1,341 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 60601.48 | 60808.00 | -1.47% | 1.94% | 3,185 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61193.97 | 61776.30 | 60891.56 | 61688.00 | 0.80% | 1.43% | 2,288 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 58823.52 | 59492.69 | -3.71% | 4.82% | 8,569 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60849.54 | 61776.30 | 60800.00 | 61688.00 | 1.36% | 1.58% | 3,935 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 58823.52 | 59023.97 | -4.53% | 4.82% | 13,636 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60775.33 | 61776.30 | 60640.40 | 61688.00 | 1.48% | 1.84% | 4,652 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 58615.06 | 59246.92 | -4.14% | 5.15% | 16,190 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60615.02 | 61302.88 | 60487.89 | 60849.53 | 0.39% | 1.33% | 4,234 BTC |
| During | 60849.54 | 61800.00 | 58823.52 | 59023.97 | -3.09% | 4.82% | 17,571 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60615.02 | 61776.30 | 60487.89 | 61688.00 | 1.74% | 2.09% | 8,169 BTC |
| During | 61699.99 | 61800.00 | 58433.18 | 58898.00 | -4.76% | 5.45% | 20,316 BTC |
