Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 July 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.0% for June 2024, against 0.0% in May 2024. Consumer prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $58,717.02 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.35% higher, and an hour later 0.13% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.08% of its price, against 0.93% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.58x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.12x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.58x compares with 3.99x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the June CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 4.58x in the quarter hour after the print, only modestly above the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI releases since 2021. The price rose 0.35 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.13 percent after one hour from the $58,717.02 level at release. The hourly high-to-low range widened to 2.08 percent from 0.93 percent beforehand.
The release arrived alongside core CPI, initial claims and continued claims, yet still produced volatility close to the event norm. Timing placed it nineteen days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window that has historically lifted Bitcoin's median volatility ratio to 4.75x. Against the 3.99x median for releases farther from policy meetings, the observed 4.58x figure aligned with the pattern.
Volume expanded more sharply than price range, reaching 13.12x versus the 6.92x typical for CPI. This combination of contained price movement and elevated turnover is consistent with an ordinary outcome when the data land well clear of imminent policy dates.
Traders reviewing the next CPI may therefore weigh calendar proximity to Federal Reserve meetings when assessing likely volatility, while recognizing that the record shows only coincidence rather than causation.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
57,497.55Close
57,488.0024h Change
-9.55 (-0.02%)24h High
59,650.0024h Low
57,050.0024h Volume
29,832 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11th July, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 58829.99 | 58849.01 | 58470.76 | 58717.02 | -0.19% | 0.64% | 153 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58697.18 | 59341.53 | 1.05% | 1.60% | 1,031 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 58652.00 | 58849.01 | 58470.76 | 58717.02 | 0.11% | 0.64% | 395 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58697.18 | 59258.00 | 0.91% | 1.60% | 1,967 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 58556.49 | 58849.01 | 58470.76 | 58717.02 | 0.27% | 0.64% | 464 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58697.18 | 59138.58 | 0.71% | 1.60% | 2,402 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 58624.00 | 58849.01 | 58470.76 | 58717.02 | 0.16% | 0.64% | 547 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58697.18 | 58922.01 | 0.35% | 1.60% | 2,721 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 58777.99 | 58849.01 | 58470.76 | 58717.02 | -0.10% | 0.64% | 987 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58670.99 | 58816.35 | 0.17% | 1.64% | 3,443 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 58449.99 | 58936.52 | 58390.96 | 58717.02 | 0.45% | 0.93% | 2,437 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 58426.00 | 58795.00 | 0.13% | 2.05% | 4,535 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 58308.01 | 58936.52 | 58290.80 | 58717.02 | 0.70% | 1.10% | 3,016 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 57555.00 | 57781.70 | -1.62% | 3.51% | 8,113 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 58154.01 | 58936.52 | 58052.00 | 58717.02 | 0.96% | 1.50% | 4,716 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 57178.00 | 57626.62 | -1.89% | 4.14% | 11,684 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57966.19 | 58936.52 | 57886.97 | 58717.02 | 1.28% | 1.78% | 6,295 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 57178.00 | 57766.52 | -1.65% | 4.14% | 13,428 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57497.55 | 58407.05 | 57050.00 | 58154.01 | 1.13% | 2.32% | 7,693 BTC |
| During | 58154.01 | 59650.00 | 57178.00 | 57626.62 | -0.92% | 4.14% | 16,400 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 57497.55 | 58936.52 | 57050.00 | 58717.02 | 2.08% | 3.20% | 12,409 BTC |
| During | 58717.02 | 59650.00 | 57150.00 | 57488.00 | -2.14% | 4.19% | 17,423 BTC |
