Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.02x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 16.53x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $62,661.64 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.6% higher, and an hour later 2.63% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.67% of its price, against 0.7% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 May 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for April 2024, against 0.4% in March 2024. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 7.02x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the April CPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 7.02x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded 16.53x, well above the 6.92x typical benchmark. Price action showed a 2.63 percent advance one hour after the 8:30 AM print, with the hourly range reaching 2.67 percent compared with 0.7 percent beforehand.
The outcome stood out because the release arrived 27 days before the June FOMC meeting, placing it outside the window where CPI has historically produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio.
Even against the 3.99x median for CPI releases not near policy decisions, the 7.02x ratio indicates the move exceeded what timing alone would predict.
Traders monitoring the next CPI may therefore watch for similar clusters of concurrent releases, as these have coincided with larger volatility ratios than isolated prints in the same event category.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
61,733.08Close
66,212.7624h Change
4479.68 (6.77%)24h High
66,666.0024h Low
61,319.4724h Volume
44,538 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
15th May, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 62682.74 | 62682.75 | 62611.44 | 62661.63 | -0.03% | 0.11% | 32 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 63743.62 | 62661.63 | 63630.45 | 1.52% | 1.70% | 1,452 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62590.53 | 62682.75 | 62428.15 | 62661.63 | 0.11% | 0.41% | 138 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64200.93 | 62661.63 | 63763.64 | 1.73% | 2.40% | 3,549 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62580.01 | 62682.75 | 62428.15 | 62661.63 | 0.13% | 0.41% | 280 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64200.93 | 62661.63 | 63569.99 | 1.43% | 2.40% | 4,385 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62535.12 | 62682.75 | 62428.15 | 62661.63 | 0.20% | 0.41% | 374 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64200.93 | 62661.63 | 63666.04 | 1.58% | 2.40% | 4,870 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62467.18 | 62682.75 | 62402.03 | 62661.63 | 0.31% | 0.45% | 642 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64200.93 | 62661.63 | 63757.56 | 1.72% | 2.40% | 5,597 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 62458.01 | 62682.75 | 62242.42 | 62661.63 | 0.32% | 0.70% | 1,218 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64332.31 | 62661.63 | 64310.03 | 2.56% | 2.60% | 7,683 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62845.79 | 62999.44 | 62242.42 | 62661.63 | -0.29% | 1.20% | 2,424 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 64663.56 | 62661.63 | 64187.50 | 2.38% | 3.10% | 12,632 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62119.96 | 62999.44 | 61923.20 | 62661.63 | 0.86% | 1.71% | 6,019 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 65150.00 | 62661.63 | 64821.19 | 3.33% | 3.82% | 19,207 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61915.39 | 62999.44 | 61829.96 | 62661.63 | 1.19% | 1.86% | 7,667 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 65380.69 | 62661.63 | 65349.99 | 4.11% | 4.16% | 22,760 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61733.08 | 62280.01 | 61319.47 | 62119.97 | 0.62% | 1.54% | 4,907 BTC |
| During | 62119.96 | 65150.00 | 61923.20 | 64821.19 | 4.17% | 4.95% | 25,226 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61733.08 | 62999.44 | 61319.47 | 62661.63 | 1.48% | 2.67% | 10,927 BTC |
| During | 62661.64 | 66666.00 | 62661.63 | 66212.76 | 5.36% | 6.01% | 33,611 BTC |
