Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 9.48x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 16.97x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $68,010.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.07% higher, and an hour later 1.73% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.41% of its price, against 0.43% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 June 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.0% for May 2024, against 0.2% in April 2024. Consumer prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out on the day of the Federal Reserve's 12 June rate decision. Its own ratio of 9.48x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the CPI release, with a volatility ratio of 9.48x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 16.97x, more than double the 6.92x typical level. The price advanced 2.07 percent within fifteen minutes and held a 1.73 percent gain after one hour, while the high-to-low range reached 2.41 percent of spot compared with 0.43 percent in the prior hour.
The flat 0.0 percent month-over-month reading for May arrived alongside the core CPI and core inflation figures, so the measured response reflects the combined release. The print landed on the same morning as the Federal Reserve decision to hold the target range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent.
CPI releases issued in the two weeks before a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, yet this instance reached 9.48x. The outcome therefore exceeded the amplification normally associated with that timing window.
Traders reviewing upcoming CPI prints may note that placement on a decision day has coincided with larger moves than the broader sample, though the magnitude can still vary substantially from the elevated median.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
67,232.01Close
68,185.0324h Change
953.02 (1.40%)24h High
69,999.0024h Low
66,905.0024h Volume
37,194 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th June, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 67863.51 | 68010.00 | 67863.50 | 68010.00 | 0.22% | 0.22% | 63 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69130.00 | 68010.00 | 69094.00 | 1.57% | 1.62% | 844 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 67908.01 | 68010.00 | 67860.00 | 68010.00 | 0.15% | 0.22% | 121 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69300.00 | 68010.00 | 69299.90 | 1.86% | 1.86% | 2,265 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 67849.22 | 68010.00 | 67849.22 | 68010.00 | 0.24% | 0.24% | 230 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69479.99 | 68010.00 | 69317.61 | 1.89% | 2.12% | 3,193 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 67765.01 | 68010.00 | 67765.01 | 68010.00 | 0.36% | 0.36% | 291 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69479.99 | 68010.00 | 69417.99 | 2.03% | 2.12% | 3,618 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 67778.43 | 68010.00 | 67736.00 | 68010.00 | 0.34% | 0.40% | 570 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69488.00 | 68010.00 | 69339.29 | 1.92% | 2.13% | 4,809 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 67820.01 | 68010.00 | 67716.22 | 68010.00 | 0.28% | 0.43% | 998 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69649.80 | 68010.00 | 69184.00 | 1.70% | 2.35% | 6,583 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67859.04 | 68059.01 | 67716.22 | 68010.00 | 0.22% | 0.50% | 1,712 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69935.99 | 68010.00 | 69867.87 | 2.66% | 2.75% | 8,885 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67396.05 | 68059.01 | 67353.02 | 68010.00 | 0.90% | 1.04% | 3,623 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69999.00 | 68010.00 | 69331.10 | 1.91% | 2.84% | 12,600 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67335.97 | 68059.01 | 67229.78 | 68010.00 | 0.99% | 1.22% | 4,819 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69999.00 | 68010.00 | 69196.01 | 1.71% | 2.84% | 16,987 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67232.01 | 67624.89 | 66905.00 | 67396.05 | 0.24% | 1.06% | 5,618 BTC |
| During | 67396.05 | 69999.00 | 67353.02 | 69331.10 | 2.79% | 3.78% | 16,223 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67232.01 | 68059.01 | 66905.00 | 68010.00 | 1.14% | 1.70% | 9,241 BTC |
| During | 68010.00 | 69999.00 | 67250.00 | 68185.03 | 0.26% | 3.93% | 27,953 BTC |
