Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 9.18x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.36x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $18,058.11 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.54% higher, and an hour later 0.52% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.7% of its price, against 1.55% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 January 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.0% for December 2022, against 0.3% in November 2022. Consumer prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 9.18x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin's reaction to the January 2023 CPI release stood out as exceptional against the event's established record. The volatility ratio reached 9.18x in the quarter hour after the print, more than double the 4.28x median observed across 70 CPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 8.36x against a typical 6.92x, confirming the move extended beyond price action alone.
Price action remained contained yet decisive. Bitcoin stood at $18,058.11 at the 8:30 AM EST release and rose 0.54 percent within fifteen minutes, holding a 0.52 percent gain after one hour. The high-to-low range in that hour reached 2.7 percent of the spot price, nearly twice the 1.55 percent range recorded in the preceding hour.
The flat 0.0 percent month-over-month CPI reading for December arrived alongside core CPI, initial claims and continued claims, so the measured response reflects the combined release. This print fell nineteen days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio. Even so, the 9.18x outcome exceeded the 3.99x median recorded for releases farther from policy meetings.
Traders reviewing the record may note that CPI prints have occasionally generated outsized moves irrespective of proximity to a Federal Reserve decision. The episode illustrates that the magnitude of any single reaction can still depart materially from the event's typical profile.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
18,197.85Close
18,790.3224h Change
592.47 (3.15%)24h High
19,117.0424h Low
17,892.0524h Volume
429,102 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th January, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 18253.85 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.62% | 1.52% | 2,370 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18140.19 | 0.45% | 2.66% | 4,646 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18234.34 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.52% | 1.52% | 4,819 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18153.21 | 0.52% | 2.66% | 12,921 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18252.20 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.62% | 1.52% | 7,018 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18100.78 | 0.24% | 2.66% | 20,997 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18262.44 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.67% | 1.52% | 8,328 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18155.45 | 0.54% | 2.66% | 25,982 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18269.59 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.71% | 1.52% | 12,416 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18284.91 | 1.24% | 2.66% | 38,816 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 18217.16 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.42% | 1.52% | 22,202 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18151.76 | 0.52% | 2.66% | 57,473 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18173.01 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.18% | 1.52% | 31,622 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18080.95 | 0.13% | 2.66% | 92,429 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18154.64 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.08% | 1.52% | 48,375 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18250.91 | 1.06% | 2.66% | 126,667 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18158.31 | 18337.03 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.10% | 1.52% | 66,235 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 18988.00 | 17892.05 | 18874.83 | 4.33% | 5.77% | 199,852 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18197.85 | 18385.71 | 18071.06 | 18154.64 | -0.24% | 1.71% | 88,315 BTC |
| During | 18154.64 | 18380.47 | 17892.05 | 18250.91 | 0.53% | 2.66% | 175,042 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18197.85 | 18385.71 | 18057.95 | 18140.60 | -0.32% | 1.78% | 136,690 BTC |
| During | 18058.11 | 19117.04 | 17892.05 | 18790.32 | 3.90% | 6.41% | 292,412 BTC |
