Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.55x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.50x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $21,832.60 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.56% lower, and an hour later 1.02% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.48% of its price, against 0.5% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 February 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.5% for January 2023, against 0.0% in December 2022. Consumer prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 7.55x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Strong Bitcoin reaction to January CPI
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the January CPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 7.55x against the 4.28x median for CPI events since 2021. Volume expanded 7.50x versus the typical 6.92x. The price opened at $21,832.60, declining 0.56% in the first fifteen minutes and 1.02% after one hour. Its high-to-low range reached 1.48% of price in that hour, compared with 0.5% in the prior hour.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the index at 0.5% month-over-month for January, versus 0.0% in December.
The event occurred 35 days before the next Federal Reserve decision. Clometrix records show CPI releases within two weeks of a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28 instances, against 3.99x across 42 others. This release exceeded even that elevated benchmark. The overall median across 70 CPI prints since 2021 remains 4.28x. A trader reviewing the next CPI may therefore weigh surprise magnitude alongside calendar proximity when gauging potential volatility.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
21,702.50Close
22,150.5524h Change
448.05 (2.02%)24h High
22,319.0824h Low
21,532.7724h Volume
362,053 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
14th February, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 21849.62 | 21894.18 | 21827.12 | 21834.32 | -0.07% | 0.31% | 1,219 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21834.31 | 21532.77 | 21672.19 | -0.74% | 1.38% | 3,128 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21822.12 | 21894.18 | 21809.89 | 21834.32 | 0.06% | 0.38% | 2,942 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21856.15 | 21532.77 | 21755.76 | -0.35% | 1.48% | 9,948 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21827.16 | 21894.18 | 21788.90 | 21834.32 | 0.03% | 0.48% | 5,002 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21856.15 | 21532.77 | 21675.46 | -0.72% | 1.48% | 15,336 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21852.01 | 21894.18 | 21788.90 | 21834.32 | -0.08% | 0.48% | 6,614 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21856.15 | 21532.77 | 21711.22 | -0.56% | 1.48% | 18,868 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21859.32 | 21894.18 | 21788.90 | 21834.32 | -0.11% | 0.48% | 10,038 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21856.15 | 21532.77 | 21720.09 | -0.52% | 1.48% | 27,059 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 21828.94 | 21897.00 | 21788.90 | 21834.32 | 0.02% | 0.49% | 16,596 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 21856.15 | 21532.77 | 21609.92 | -1.03% | 1.48% | 40,530 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21809.55 | 21897.00 | 21788.90 | 21834.32 | 0.11% | 0.49% | 24,332 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 22319.08 | 21532.77 | 22144.37 | 1.41% | 3.52% | 92,832 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21714.53 | 21897.00 | 21704.48 | 21834.32 | 0.55% | 0.88% | 50,144 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 22319.08 | 21532.77 | 22040.01 | 0.94% | 3.52% | 150,470 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21753.18 | 21897.00 | 21666.39 | 21834.32 | 0.37% | 1.05% | 70,253 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 22319.08 | 21532.77 | 22184.10 | 1.58% | 3.52% | 185,125 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21702.50 | 21789.46 | 21666.39 | 21714.99 | 0.06% | 0.56% | 64,974 BTC |
| During | 21714.53 | 22319.08 | 21532.77 | 22040.01 | 1.48% | 3.52% | 200,615 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21702.50 | 21897.00 | 21666.39 | 21834.32 | 0.60% | 1.05% | 115,119 BTC |
| During | 21832.60 | 22319.08 | 21532.77 | 22150.55 | 1.44% | 3.52% | 246,934 BTC |
