Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for December 2023, against 0.1% in November 2023. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $47,139.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% lower, and an hour later 1.57% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.37% of its price, against 0.96% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.08x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.55x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.08x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the December CPI release and the accompanying data published on 11 January 2024. Volatility reached 2.08x in the quarter hour after the print, compared with the 4.28x median observed across CPI releases since 2021. Volume rose 3.55x against the typical 6.92x expansion. The high to low range in the hour after stood at 2.37 percent of price, versus 0.96 percent in the hour before.
The release fell outside the two week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision. CPI prints in that pre decision window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, while those at other times have averaged 3.99x. This instance delivered 2.08x, below even the non pre decision benchmark. The 0.2 percent month over month CPI figure arrived together with core CPI, initial claims and continued claims, yet the combined release left price action contained.
Across seventy CPI releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio for Bitcoin has been 4.28x. The current episode remained well below that level despite the faster pace of price increases relative to November.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
46,731.99Close
45,949.9924h Change
-782.00 (-1.70%)24h High
48,969.4824h Low
45,606.0624h Volume
86,504 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11th January, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 47254.99 | 47261.10 | 47088.00 | 47140.00 | -0.24% | 0.37% | 131 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47201.32 | 46950.01 | 47090.00 | -0.11% | 0.53% | 380 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47330.89 | 47350.00 | 47088.00 | 47140.00 | -0.40% | 0.55% | 398 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47201.32 | 46762.86 | 47052.91 | -0.19% | 0.93% | 1,171 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47322.53 | 47350.00 | 47088.00 | 47140.00 | -0.39% | 0.55% | 597 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47201.32 | 46762.86 | 47079.99 | -0.13% | 0.93% | 1,574 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47171.77 | 47350.00 | 47088.00 | 47140.00 | -0.07% | 0.55% | 791 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47201.32 | 46762.86 | 47038.12 | -0.22% | 0.93% | 1,876 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47449.64 | 47449.64 | 47088.00 | 47140.00 | -0.66% | 0.76% | 1,752 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47325.99 | 46762.86 | 47325.20 | 0.39% | 1.19% | 2,653 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 47146.99 | 47464.87 | 47012.57 | 47140.00 | -0.01% | 0.95% | 3,678 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 47880.00 | 46762.86 | 47878.74 | 1.54% | 2.33% | 7,165 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47073.20 | 47464.87 | 46840.00 | 47140.00 | 0.14% | 1.32% | 6,288 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 48969.48 | 46762.86 | 47796.14 | 1.37% | 4.51% | 25,053 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46301.46 | 47464.87 | 46210.00 | 47140.00 | 1.78% | 2.64% | 11,360 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 48969.48 | 45606.06 | 45824.00 | -2.87% | 6.87% | 44,195 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46140.81 | 47464.87 | 45960.64 | 47140.00 | 2.12% | 3.17% | 14,004 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 48969.48 | 45606.06 | 46534.02 | -1.30% | 6.87% | 49,735 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46731.99 | 46750.00 | 45618.10 | 46301.46 | -0.93% | 2.42% | 13,993 BTC |
| During | 46301.46 | 48969.48 | 45606.06 | 45824.00 | -1.04% | 6.87% | 55,555 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 46731.99 | 47464.87 | 45618.10 | 47140.00 | 0.87% | 3.89% | 25,353 BTC |
| During | 47139.99 | 48969.48 | 45606.06 | 45949.99 | -2.59% | 6.87% | 61,151 BTC |
