Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 February 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for January 2024, against 0.2% in December 2023. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $49,757.12 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.44% lower, and an hour later 1.59% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.01% of its price, against 0.41% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.97x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.77x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.97x compares with 3.99x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin's response to the January CPI release registered as ordinary by Clometrix standards. The volatility ratio reached 3.97x in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, close to the 3.99x median recorded for CPI releases outside the two weeks before a Federal Reserve decision. Volume expanded 6.77x against the 6.92x benchmark for the same event class, confirming activity levels that matched rather than exceeded the historical pattern for this data point.
The release arrived 35 days before the March 20 policy meeting and therefore fell into the lower-sensitivity cohort. Across the 42 CPI prints since 2021 that occurred outside the pre-Fed window, the median volatility ratio stands at 3.99x, while the 28 prints inside that window show 4.75x.
Price action remained contained. Bitcoin stood at $49,757.12 at the moment of release, declined 0.44 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.59 percent within the hour, while the high-low range widened to 3.01 percent from 0.41 percent in the preceding hour. The combined arrival of headline CPI, core CPI and core inflation measures produced no outsized deviation from the event's long-run median volatility ratio of 4.28x.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
50,067.68Close
49,412.7024h Change
-654.98 (-1.33%)24h High
50,368.6124h Low
48,300.9524h Volume
54,582 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
13th February, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 49785.26 | 49785.30 | 49757.12 | 49757.12 | -0.06% | 0.06% | 66 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49780.99 | 49551.11 | 49612.01 | -0.29% | 0.46% | 333 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49870.00 | 49870.01 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.23% | 0.24% | 196 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49780.99 | 49551.11 | 49637.63 | -0.24% | 0.46% | 781 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49913.39 | 49913.40 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.31% | 0.33% | 285 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49780.99 | 49188.10 | 49499.99 | -0.52% | 1.19% | 2,230 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49857.14 | 49926.00 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.20% | 0.35% | 404 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49780.99 | 49188.10 | 49540.18 | -0.44% | 1.19% | 2,734 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 49860.00 | 49930.22 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.21% | 0.36% | 625 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 49188.10 | 49528.06 | -0.46% | 1.42% | 4,172 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 49902.01 | 49952.43 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.29% | 0.41% | 1,404 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 48400.00 | 48966.39 | -1.61% | 3.00% | 9,699 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 49817.67 | 50032.14 | 49750.00 | 49757.12 | -0.12% | 0.56% | 3,069 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 48400.00 | 48944.01 | -1.66% | 3.00% | 15,715 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 50092.51 | 50247.00 | 49650.00 | 49757.12 | -0.67% | 1.19% | 8,249 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 48300.95 | 48586.11 | -2.41% | 3.20% | 22,025 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 50078.00 | 50247.00 | 49650.00 | 49757.12 | -0.64% | 1.19% | 11,850 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 48300.95 | 49167.23 | -1.20% | 3.20% | 26,891 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 50067.68 | 50368.61 | 49724.33 | 50092.51 | 0.05% | 1.28% | 10,178 BTC |
| During | 50092.51 | 50247.00 | 48300.95 | 48586.11 | -3.10% | 3.87% | 30,274 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 50067.68 | 50368.61 | 49650.00 | 49757.12 | -0.62% | 1.43% | 18,427 BTC |
| During | 49757.12 | 49897.51 | 48300.95 | 49412.70 | -0.70% | 3.20% | 36,154 BTC |
