BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 14th March 2023

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.73x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.28x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $24,644.80 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 3.3% higher, and an hour later 4.94% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 7.83% of its price, against 1.41% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 March 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for February 2023, against 0.5% in January 2023. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 8 days before the Federal Reserve's 22 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 6.73x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin posted a strong reaction to the March 2023 CPI release. Its volatility ratio reached 6.73x in the quarter hour after the print, well above the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI releases since 2021. Volume rose 5.28x, below the typical 6.92x, while price climbed 3.3 percent in fifteen minutes and 4.94 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range expanded to 7.83 percent of the $24,644.80 opening level, compared with 1.41 percent in the prior hour.

The release arrived eight days before the Federal Reserve's March rate decision. CPI prints in that window have historically produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio for Bitcoin, versus 3.99x at other times. The 6.73x reading therefore exceeded the elevated pre-Fed benchmark, indicating the move stood out even against the timing effect. Traders reviewing this episode may note that pre-Fed CPI releases have shown a consistent capacity to lift volatility above the overall event median. The record supplies no basis for assuming any single future print will match this magnitude, yet it underscores why positioning ahead of those dates has often coincided with larger ranges than releases falling outside the two-week window.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

24,122.19

24,386.39

24h Change

264.20 (1.08%)

24h High

26,386.87

24h Low

23,976.42

24h Volume

702,301 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

14th March, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	24683.45	24772.72	24636.15	24639.76	-0.18%	0.55%	1,302 BTC
During	24644.80	25000.00	24458.04	24964.87	1.28%	2.17%	5,878 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	24706.45	24772.72	24636.15	24639.76	-0.27%	0.55%	3,295 BTC
During	24644.80	25300.00	24458.04	25109.21	1.85%	3.33%	15,660 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	24664.61	24772.72	24636.15	24639.76	-0.10%	0.55%	5,097 BTC
During	24644.80	25300.00	24458.04	25069.06	1.69%	3.33%	21,519 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	24701.07	24772.72	24617.66	24639.76	-0.25%	0.63%	8,166 BTC
During	24644.80	25500.00	24458.04	25457.68	3.19%	4.09%	29,929 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	24743.05	24890.00	24617.66	24639.76	-0.42%	1.09%	20,152 BTC
During	24644.80	26025.00	24458.04	25832.57	4.60%	6.02%	59,890 BTC

1 Hour
Before	24626.96	24890.00	24543.34	24639.76	0.05%	1.39%	34,649 BTC
During	24644.80	26386.87	24458.04	25863.37	4.71%	7.31%	100,478 BTC

2 Hours
Before	24357.42	24890.00	24346.76	24639.76	1.15%	2.18%	67,936 BTC
During	24644.80	26386.87	24458.04	25965.00	5.08%	7.31%	144,453 BTC

4 Hours
Before	24241.64	24890.00	24150.00	24639.76	1.62%	2.97%	100,612 BTC
During	24644.80	26386.87	24458.04	25761.38	4.33%	7.31%	205,943 BTC

6 Hours
Before	24378.67	24890.00	24118.28	24639.76	1.06%	3.10%	137,129 BTC
During	24644.80	26386.87	24458.04	25526.66	3.45%	7.31%	261,957 BTC

8 Hours
Before	24122.19	24820.00	24084.90	24242.69	0.50%	2.96%	149,631 BTC
During	24241.64	26386.87	24150.00	25761.38	5.90%	8.48%	306,556 BTC

12 Hours
Before	24122.19	24890.00	24084.90	24639.76	2.10%	3.23%	250,243 BTC
During	24644.80	26386.87	23976.42	24386.39	-1.06%	9.14%	452,058 BTC