BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 13th April 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.5% for March 2021, against 0.3% in February 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.69x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.48x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $63,036.56 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.21% lower, and an hour later 0.71% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.81% of its price, against 1% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.69x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed almost no reaction to the March 2021 CPI print. Its volatility ratio reached just 0.69x in the quarter hour after the release, well below the 4.28x median recorded across CPI events since 2021. Volume rose only 1.48x against a typical 6.92x, confirming the market barely registered the data. Price moved from $63,036.56 to a 0.21 percent decline within fifteen minutes and 0.71 percent lower after one hour, with the hourly range narrowing to 0.81 percent from 1 percent beforehand.

The release arrived fourteen days before the Federal Reserve's April 28 decision, placing it outside the two-week window in which CPI has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. Releases inside that window carried a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across twenty-eight observations, compared with 3.99x for the forty-two events farther from policy meetings. This print therefore delivered less movement than its timing alone would have suggested. The record supplies no basis for expecting any particular magnitude from the next release on the basis of this one.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

60,315.36

Close

63,317.94

24h Change

3002.58 (4.74%)

24h High

63,869.99

24h Low

60,201.22

24h Volume

82,901 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th April, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before63027.0563036.5762978.9663036.560.02%0.09%86 BTC
During63036.5663039.0063001.1263017.63-0.03%0.06%52 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before62938.6363036.5762924.1663036.560.16%0.18%316 BTC
During63036.5663066.0062913.1862913.37-0.20%0.24%340 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before63013.1463091.9562880.0063036.560.04%0.34%780 BTC
During63036.5663066.0062900.0063030.00-0.01%0.26%633 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before63083.9763260.0062880.0063036.56-0.08%0.60%1,299 BTC
During63036.5663068.0062900.0062905.15-0.21%0.27%977 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before62942.2163260.0062790.8563036.560.15%0.74%2,166 BTC
During63036.5663068.0062813.0562973.25-0.10%0.40%1,960 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before62630.7663260.0062630.7663036.560.64%0.99%4,320 BTC
During63036.5663068.0062559.9562587.16-0.72%0.81%4,410 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before62718.1263260.0062458.0063036.560.51%1.27%7,789 BTC
During63036.5663068.0062500.0062865.50-0.27%0.90%7,339 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before62560.8163287.8862235.4063036.560.75%1.66%20,636 BTC
During63036.5663777.7762500.0063267.190.36%2.00%15,302 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before61356.5763287.8860450.2563036.562.67%4.48%33,022 BTC
During63036.5663777.7762500.0063403.710.58%2.00%20,395 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before60315.3662723.0060201.2262560.823.59%4.02%29,591 BTC
During62560.8163777.7762235.4063267.191.12%2.42%35,938 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before60315.3663287.8860201.2263036.564.32%4.88%50,227 BTC
During63036.5663869.9962500.0063317.940.44%2.14%32,673 BTC

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