Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 8.51x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.50x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $23,063.10 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.9% higher, and an hour later 4.66% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.85% of its price, against 0.85% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 August 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.0% for July 2022, against 1.3% in June 2022. Consumer prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 8.51x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted a strong reaction to the July CPI release, with volatility reaching 8.51x the level of an ordinary quarter hour that day against a median of 4.28x across CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 9.50x its baseline, above the 6.92x median for the event. The move stood out even though the release arrived 41 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger median volatility of 4.75x.
Price action confirmed the scale. Bitcoin stood at $23,063.10 at the 8:30 AM print. It rose 2.9 percent within fifteen minutes and 4.66 percent within the hour, while its hourly range widened to 4.85 percent from 0.85 percent beforehand.
Releases far from policy meetings have shown a median volatility ratio of 3.99x. Traders monitoring the next CPI print can note that reactions of this size have occurred without proximity to a policy decision, yet the data set offers no basis for expecting any particular magnitude on future releases.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
23,037.79Close
23,945.1224h Change
907.33 (3.79%)24h High
24,226.0024h Low
22,664.6924h Volume
210,641 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th August, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 23111.89 | 23113.97 | 23046.87 | 23063.99 | -0.21% | 0.29% | 307 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 23530.00 | 23060.56 | 23471.44 | 1.74% | 2.00% | 2,378 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23049.00 | 23155.27 | 23042.78 | 23063.99 | 0.06% | 0.49% | 1,381 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 23777.90 | 23060.56 | 23550.26 | 2.07% | 3.02% | 7,497 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23134.93 | 23155.27 | 23004.58 | 23063.99 | -0.31% | 0.65% | 2,695 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 23777.90 | 23060.56 | 23716.98 | 2.76% | 3.02% | 11,706 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23183.00 | 23199.99 | 23004.58 | 23063.99 | -0.52% | 0.84% | 3,571 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 23777.90 | 23060.56 | 23731.22 | 2.82% | 3.02% | 15,495 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 23122.36 | 23199.99 | 23004.58 | 23063.99 | -0.25% | 0.84% | 5,453 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24056.22 | 23060.56 | 23985.18 | 3.84% | 4.14% | 26,469 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 23186.82 | 23199.99 | 23004.58 | 23063.99 | -0.53% | 0.84% | 8,762 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24178.00 | 23060.56 | 24137.45 | 4.45% | 4.62% | 37,989 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23059.75 | 23204.00 | 22983.08 | 23063.99 | 0.02% | 0.95% | 14,998 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24178.00 | 23060.56 | 23919.58 | 3.58% | 4.62% | 54,515 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23026.48 | 23204.00 | 22983.08 | 23063.99 | 0.16% | 0.95% | 25,624 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24178.00 | 23060.56 | 24025.27 | 4.00% | 4.62% | 73,494 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22878.69 | 23204.00 | 22850.00 | 23063.99 | 0.80% | 1.53% | 35,835 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24178.00 | 23060.56 | 23757.68 | 2.92% | 4.62% | 88,207 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23037.79 | 23042.05 | 22664.69 | 23026.48 | -0.05% | 1.64% | 46,539 BTC |
| During | 23026.48 | 24178.00 | 22983.08 | 24025.27 | 4.16% | 4.94% | 99,117 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 23037.79 | 23204.00 | 22664.69 | 23063.99 | 0.11% | 2.32% | 72,163 BTC |
| During | 23063.10 | 24226.00 | 23060.56 | 23945.12 | 3.68% | 4.81% | 138,478 BTC |
